North Alabama will see passing clouds through the day Monday but also periods of mostly sunny skies. Highs will top out near 70° which is about 15 degrees above normal for early February. Make sure you take advantage of today if you need to get things done outside. Widespread rain and thunderstorms returns Tuesday and continue through Thursday.
By late tonight, the first of two systems will arrives in North Alabama. We will see off and on showers Tuesday impacting both the morning and evening commute. Off to our west, a line of strong to severe storms will be taking shape across Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This line will progress eastward into Mississippi Tuesday evening, bringing a risk for gusty winds and heavy rainfall. We expect this line of storms to weaken below severe limits before it reaches north Alabama overnight Tuesday night. However, one or two stronger storms could hold on long enough to impact areas west of I-65 and closer to the Shoals.
As this first system moves out, a second system will be following in the first system's tracks. With this second system, there are better ingredients in place for more organized severe weather here at home. Another line of strong to severe storms will develop across Mississippi before tracking eastward across Alabama Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although the best environment for severe weather remains to our south across central and southern Alabama, we still have the potential to see strong to severe thunderstorms here in north Alabama Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threats on Wednesday will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
Rain continues Wednesday night and Thursday before a cold front finally allows us to dry out Thursday evening. Rainfall totals this week still look impressive, ranging from two to three inches, with some locally higher amounts possible. Although we have had a couple weeks without a widespread heavy rainfall, our grounds are still saturated and waterways swollen from past heavy rain events we have seen this winter. Localized flooding will be possible especially for low-lying areas that typically see minor flooding.