After analyzing the latest runs of data early Saturday morning, there have been some adjustments to the previous forecast. As early as Friday afternoon, the timing was starting to vary from what we were forecasting during the Friday morning show. Now, instead of a midday storm arrival, the latest data is indicating storms reaching the Shoals by mid to late afternoon and tracking eastward through the evening and overnight.
Storm threats have been adjusted as well. Initially, flooding was a widespread worry, considering data was indicating an additional 2+ inches across the area. Now, numbers are trending lower. Also, yesterday's rain added up to just over a quarter of an inch at HSV Intl. Today, storms should likely dump just over an inch. That can cause standing water and ponding on roads, but significant stream rises are not at the forefront of the concerns at this point.
In regard to the severe aspect with today's weather, changes have been made to that forecast as well. Damaging wind is the most likely threat to materialize today, but the risk of tornadoes has increased somewhat, especially to our west in northern Mississippi. Northwest Alabama has the higher risk for severe storms, including tornadoes. Generally, storms will be weakening on their track eastward toward Sand Mountain, but a storm reaching severe limits isn't impossible.
It's important to note that there are still some undetermined variables in today's forecast. For example, some data sources indicate a round of rain and storms late this morning, which would deplete some of the energy available for severe weather later today. Persistent cloud cover can limit instability as well. These factors will play a role in the kind of strength our storms are able to maintain later.
All this to say...the StormTracker weather team is monitoring the severe threat regularly through the day. If you are away from the TV or desktop, you can livestream our severe weather coverage in the event warnings are issued. Just download the StormTracker Weather App (if you haven't already!) and scroll to the bottom to watch us LIVE. This is also particularly useful if you happen to lose power. Just make sure those wireless devices are fully charged in advance.