BREAKING NEWS Woman injured in fireworks accident Full Story

Tropical disturbance could mean increasing rain next week

We will stay dry through the weekend, but a disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea may mean increasing rain in the Tennessee Valley next week.

Posted: Oct 5, 2018 4:16 PM
Updated: Oct 5, 2018 10:23 PM

10:00 PM Friday Update: New data Friday evening continues to indicate the disturbance over the western Caribbean Sea could become a tropical storm this weekend or early next week. Some computer forecast simulations intensify this system to a hurricane, but the odds of that seem small. More likely, this system will strengthen as a tropical storm. One inhibiting factor that may prevent a hurricane from forming from this system will be its fast forward motion. It may be slow through Monday, but a cold front will speed up its movement on Tuesday and bring it inland Wednesday morning -- early than our earlier forecasts suggested by 12-18 hours. 

Further organization and intensification will help determine the expact landfall area. While I'm hesitant to zero in with so much time before it happens, I will say this: impact from this system is possible anywhere along the northern Gulf Coast from Southeast Louisiana to the Mississippi Coast to the Alabama Coast to the Florida Panhandle. The latest data available heavily favors the Florida Panhandle, but some shifting of that track is very much possible depending on exactly where the circulation develops. 

Impacts are also a big question right now that will become more clear as the system becomes better organized. Landfalling tropical systems are always capable of producing heavy rain. The fast forward motion of this system may mean the heavy rain isn't so prolonged. That will help limit the flash flood threat. Storm surge flooding is also a common concern with landfalling tropical systems. Tornadoes and destructive winds are always a threat. A fast-moving system can be especially favored to bring both, especially east of the center of the circulation.  

All interests in the northern Gulf Coast should stay up to date with new information through the weekend. Don't look at a forecast one day and think the forecast will be the same three days later. It can and probably will change.

4PM Friday Update: We are tracking a disturbance in the tropics that could influence our weather in the Tennessee Valley next week. We will stay mostly dry until at least Wednesday.

Weather looks great for high school football on our Friday evening. Expect dry conditions with temperatures in the lower 80s around kickoff. We will slowly cool into the 70s by halftime.

The warm and dry weather will continue through this weekend. That doesn't mean a stray shower can't happen, but nearly all of the Tennessee Valley will stay dry. High temperatures will be near 90 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday with morning lows in the upper 60s. A few showers are possible on Monday and Tuesday, but both days will still be mostly dry.

A disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea could organize and become the next tropical storm. We are tracking this system closely as it will be tracking northward across the Gulf of Mexico and toward the northern Gulf Coast. It could impact areas from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Expect track and impacts are highly dependent on how quickly this system intensifies. That's true for its possible influence on our weather in the Tennessee Valley, too. For now, our chance for rain is increasing for Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical systems can often be good large scale weather pattern changers. A change in the weather pattern may allow more October-like chill to arrive in the Tennessee Valley late next week. This forecast can change, so be sure you're staying updated on fresh information.

Huntsville
Broken Clouds
77° wxIcon
Hi: 92° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 79°
Florence
Overcast
80° wxIcon
Hi: 93° Lo: 72°
Feels Like: 84°
Fayetteville
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 92° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 78°
Decatur
Broken Clouds
77° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 79°
Scottsboro
Broken Clouds
75° wxIcon
Hi: 90° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 75°
WAAY Radar
WAAY WAAY-TV Cam
WAAY Temperatures

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 41362

Reported Deaths: 983
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson4802152
Montgomery3947103
Mobile3904134
Tuscaloosa218842
Marshall168010
Lee130237
Madison12717
Shelby117623
Morgan10475
Walker90524
Franklin87814
Dallas8689
Elmore86414
Baldwin8289
Etowah70713
DeKalb6945
Butler62328
Chambers61227
Tallapoosa58369
Autauga56012
Russell5190
Unassigned50323
Lauderdale4736
Limestone4660
Lowndes46321
Houston4614
Cullman4354
Pike4175
Colbert3836
Coffee3702
Bullock3679
St. Clair3472
Barbour3452
Covington3437
Escambia3326
Calhoun3225
Hale30621
Marengo30011
Talladega3007
Wilcox2898
Sumter28412
Clarke2726
Dale2680
Jackson2632
Winston2463
Monroe2312
Chilton2282
Blount2261
Pickens2226
Marion21413
Randolph2019
Conecuh1977
Choctaw19512
Bibb1861
Greene1838
Macon1819
Perry1621
Henry1313
Crenshaw1253
Lawrence1050
Washington1047
Cherokee857
Geneva780
Lamar751
Fayette671
Clay622
Coosa581
Cleburne361
Out of AL00

Tennessee Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 48712

Reported Deaths: 633
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Shelby11145197
Davidson10450118
Rutherford285435
Hamilton266533
Sumner155952
Trousdale14945
Williamson122614
Knox10865
Out of TN10657
Wilson89117
Putnam8537
Robertson81511
Sevier7683
Lake6910
Bradley6623
Tipton6335
Bledsoe6181
Unassigned5811
Bedford5455
Montgomery5347
Macon4363
Maury3263
Hardeman3255
Hamblen3144
Fayette3102
Madison2802
Loudon2771
Rhea2760
Dyer2401
McMinn22718
Cheatham2251
Blount2123
Dickson2010
Cumberland1784
Lawrence1526
Washington1420
Lauderdale1393
Monroe1376
Jefferson1250
Gibson1211
Coffee1170
Anderson1162
Obion1132
Smith1111
Sullivan1082
Hardin1047
Greene952
Haywood922
Cocke900
Franklin823
Wayne820
Marshall811
Hickman800
Warren720
Marion714
White703
McNairy680
Weakley631
Lincoln610
DeKalb600
Grundy591
Overton591
Roane590
Hawkins572
Carter561
Giles561
Unicoi550
Henry450
Campbell441
Carroll441
Henderson440
Polk440
Claiborne410
Grainger400
Johnson390
Cannon360
Crockett343
Meigs330
Perry330
Sequatchie330
Chester300
Humphreys271
Jackson260
Morgan251
Stewart230
Decatur220
Fentress220
Scott180
Clay160
Union160
Houston140
Benton131
Moore120
Van Buren80
Lewis60
Pickett60
Hancock30

 

 

Community Events