A gloomy Saturday will give way to a picture perfect Sunday across north Alabama! Clouds clear out tonight leaving us with blue skies and sunshine all day tomorrow. Temperatures also surge well above normal for early February, with highs in the low to mid 60s. If you are hosting any watch parties for the big game down in Miami tomorrow night, it might not be a bad idea to fire up the grill for your guests! Whatever you do tomorrow, be sure to soak in all the sun you can, because we have a very wet and active pattern shaping up for the work week.
Much of Monday will be dry. Clouds will be back on the increase throughout the day, but winds out of the southwest will keep highs in the mid 60s. Our attention turns to two separate systems that will brings waves of showers and storms to the area by mid week. The first system arrives late Monday night and brings rain chances through Tuesday night. The heaviest rain with this first system stays to our north across Tennessee but we will still see rain here in north Alabama on Tuesday. The second system arrives Wednesday, persisting through Wednesday night and into the early hours of Thursday. We are closely monitoring this second system for the potential for strong storms Wednesday evening across north Alabama.
There are still some differences in data sources with how these two systems will evolve. One scenario gives us a brief break from the rain in between systems Tuesday night. However, another scenario keeps rainfall consistently in the forecast Tuesday night, even as one system moves out and the other system moves in. Whether or not we see this break in the rain will be crucial in our severe weather chances Wednesday. A break in the rain means a higher risk for severe storms while no break in the rain means a lesser chance for severe storms. For now, our forecast will lean towards the second scenario, with rain continuing Tuesday night into Wednesday and a lower risk for stronger storms. However, the ingredients will still be in place to at least have the chance for one or two storms to become strong in our area Wednesday. The primary concerns will be gusty winds and heavy rain. Even outside of stronger storms, flooding will once again be a concern by late week. We are expecting most areas to pick up anywhere between two to four inches of rain, which will be enough to cause renewed flooding problems along waterways that are already swollen thanks to all the rain we have seen this winter.
This forecast will continue to evolve in the days to come, so be sure to stay with WAAY 31 as we fine tune the details. The bottom line is to keep the umbrella handy next week and stay weather aware for the potential for stronger storms Wednesday.