Any stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty wind and small hail. Therefore, a Marginal Risk for severe weather (1 out of 5 on the scale) has been issued for our central and western counties per the SPC. In addition to the risk for strong storms, gusty wind will be a factor overnight. A southeast wind will increase through the early morning hours of Thursday, at times gusting up to 45 mph. A WIND ADVISORY will be in effect through 9 AM as a result. Wind may take down small branches and cause power outages.
The risk for severe storms is slightly higher Thursday. However, the severe threat Thursday is largely dependent on how much daytime heating we get once the morning rain ends, in addition to the placement of a warm front approaching our area from the south. If the clouds break enough and the warm front passes, we will likely see at least scattered severe storms, mainly in our eastern counties. For this reason, southern portions of the Sand Mountain area are in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather Thursday. Damaging wind and locally torrential rain are the most likely hazards, but if the storms are able to get strong enough, there's also the risk for large hail and a tornado threat. Once a cold front passes from west to east by the evening, the severe threat ends and we'll only have lingering showers overnight.
After this system moves through, we aren't quiet for long. Showers and storms return Friday night into Saturday. Even a strong to severe storm will be possible again in our western counties. Fortunately, we'll calm down by Sunday and rain chances drop quite a bit for the beginning of next week.