If the last time you checked the forecast was before the weekend, you need to be aware of the changes that have occurred over the last 48 hours.
Here's how it all breaks down. Storms farther northwest in western Tennessee and Kentucky will track southeastward late tonight. Forecast data indicates those storms forming into a broken line as they approach the Shoals after midnight. The greatest risk with any stronger storms tonight will be damaging hail and wind, but a low end tornado threat exists as well.
Since this is an overnight event, we are using an abundance of caution in the forecast. Be sure you have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up in the event of severe storms tonight. While rain and storms will likely linger into daybreak Tuesday, the severe threat decreases as you head farther east. That means the threat for severe storms should be ending by your morning drive (and when polls open) Tuesday.
In regard to the flooding threat, it should be noted that any strong storms tonight will be packing heavy rain, creating a localized flooding threat. Overall though, forecast rain totals have dropped from a projected 4 to 5 inches (last week's forecast) to now projecting .75 to 1.75 inches of additional rain through Thursday. Now data sources are keying in on some dry periods Tuesday through Wednesday, which will greatly help mitigate the flooding issues. By the weekend, the rain is out of here and we'll get to enjoy some sunshine starting Friday.