If you've canceled outdoor plans because of the tropical moisture heading our way, you'll want to watch this forecast closely as there have been some important shifts in the most recent data we're monitoring.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 is not yet a tropical depression or tropical storm. It sits about 200 miles south of the central Louisiana coast, tracking north at 14 mph. Maximum sustained wind was 45 MPH, which is strong enough to be classified as a tropical storm but there's not yet enough organization within the system. Still, the NHC is expecting PTC 3 to be Tropical Storm Claudette by tonight. The next update comes down at 4 or just before 4 PM.
The official forecast track is a bit farther east now and most data sources keep the bulk of the rain south of North Alabama. Overall, Father's Day is looking partly sunny with morning showers and a high in the upper 80s. At this point, showers actual look slightly more likely Saturday than Sunday since the center of circulation should be to our east by Sunday morning. An inch to an inch and a half of rain looks possible in our southeastern counties, specifically in Marshall and DeKalb Counties. Rainfall totals drop quickly farther northwest and they should be less than half an inch elsewhere. We'll barely have any measurable rain in northwest Alabama. The wind picks up too, with gusts between 20 and 30 MPH Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. With lower rain and storm coverage, temperatures will likely be hotter this weekend than initially expected.
To start the work week, we'll turn our focus to a cold front heading our way Monday in Tuesday. Rain and storms increase in coverage with the approaching front, becoming most widespread Monday night. The cold front is a strong one, knocking highs down to near 80 on Tuesday with lows near 60 again Wednesday morning.