The WAAY 31 Storm Tracker Weather Team is tracking a risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday across the Tennessee Valley. Occasional showers on Friday are likely, but the severe threat will hold off until Saturday if it materializes.
The Saturday risk for severe thunderstorms is a very low risk. If the risk unfolds, it will be in the form of one or two isolated severe thunderstorms. Most data indicates the risk will likely not materialize for us in the Tennessee Valley. The conditions that increase the risk for severe thunderstorms - instability, especially - don't necessarily line up with the period of time when showers and thunderstorms are most likely to form. Although the risk is small, be weather aware on Saturday and make sure you're ready to move to safety quickly if severe weather threatens. One severe thunderstorm is all we need to make the day take a bad turn. Severe thunderstorms are defined as thunderstorms that produce tornadoes, winds of at least 58 mph, hail at least an inch in diameter, or any combination of those elements.
Friday will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 50s to start the morning and warm into the low-to-mid 60s in the afternoon. The occasional showers will continue through Friday night and Saturday morning. Those showers will help to limit the instability, which in turn limits the risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.
A cold front could bring another round of rain Monday through Tuesday morning. Severe storms are not likely with this system, but temperatures will spiral downward Tuesday through Thursday. That will mean highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.