A swath of widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms currently along the Alabama-Mississippi state line is moving into North Alabama this evening. There is a narrow window for one or two of these embedded thunderstorms to become stronger in far northwest Alabama through sunset tonight. In fact, we have received a report of a confirmed tornado that moved through Greene and Pickens Counties earlier this afternoon. However, given the cloud cover we have seen all day combined with a warm front staying to our south tonight, the severe risk is pretty low here in North Alabama. Heavy downpours will be possible with any embedded thunderstorms later this evening. We do not anticipate any tornadoes in our area tonight as the better ingredients remain south across southern and central Alabama.
The warm front to our south right now will slide northward overnight and early Monday morning. Spotty showers and thunderstorms remain possible overnight and tomorrow morning as this front lifts northward. Again, the severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could cause problems for the morning drive. Data sources are really drying us out more than anticipated for the rest of the afternoon and evening Monday. A muggy airmass will be in place, meaning isolated showers and storms could redevelop later in the day. Those will be few and far between though as there will be no "trigger" to set off activity once the warm front lifts northward. Monday looks like a warm and humid day with highs in the low to mid 80s.
We are keeping a very close eye on the set up for Tuesday. A cold front to our northwest will approach North Alabama throughout the day. The warm and muggy airmass in place could set the stage for showers and storms as early as Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, the ingredients will come together for more widespread strong to severe storms as the front gets closer. All of North Alabama is under a Slight risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather Tuesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible.
The cold front moves through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, ending our rain chances. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 are expected, potentially leading to localized flooding. Temperatures fall into the low 70s for the remainder of the work week with overnight lows in the upper 40s to near 50.