Severe thunderstorms are still possible for Saturday afternoon and evening. It's a low risk, but any risk for potentially dangerous weather should always be taken seriously. One severe thunderstorm is all we need to make a day turn bad. Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes, destructive winds, and damaging hail.
Forecast trends since Tuesday have gradually zeroed in on areas along the Mississippi River from Northwest Mississippi and Eastern Arkansas north through West Tennessee, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois for the highest risk for severe thunderstorms. That means the highest risk is well west of us in the Tennessee Valley. Our risk may come primarily from weakening storms tracking into the Tennessee Valley as they move away from the most favored areas to our west. Storms will likely be weakening. Weakening storms tend to favor damaging winds. That doesn't mean we can't get a tornado, too. It just means wind is likely to be our biggest issue from any severe thunderstorms. That wind can do the same damage as a tornado.
An even bigger problem for us in the Tennessee Valley may be the heavy rain. Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches through Saturday night. Those thunderstorms can bring locally higher amounts of up to 3-4 inches. That can cause flash flooding, and we will need to watch the river levels, too.
Sunday will dry out, and we will stay dry through Monday and Tuesday. More rain and storms could arrive as early as Wednesday night and stay with us through Thursday.