The storm system we are tracking has not yet developed. It will begin forming over Texas Thursday night and Friday. It will bring widespread, persistent rain starting Friday night. The rain will fall through Sunday. Rain may change to snow Sunday for some of us. The biggest chance for snow looks like Sunday night and Monday morning. Whether the rain makes the change to snow, we're looking at a messy, cold weekend. It will be a good weekend for a movie.
As this storm system is evolving, we will be closely monitoring the wind flow throughout the depth of the atmosphere around the storm system. The wind will move warm air and cold air around the storm system. If that cold air stays just north of us, it may be that the snow stays over Tennessee and to our north. The latest data we have Tuesday afternoon indicate the cold air will arrive. The question really becomes will enough lingering moisture be present when that cold air does arrive Sunday night and early Monday morning. For now, our data indicate that will happen.
As for the time line, rain will begin increasing from west to east after midnight Friday night. Rain will fall through Saturday and Sunday. As the colder air begins moving in, we could see rain change to sleet or even mix with snow. If we are going to change to all snow, it's most likely to happen after 10 PM Sunday.
This forecast is subject to change. As new data is available over time, we will make adjustments as needed. Stay updated on new weather information. Don't look at one forecast today and expect the storm system to play out that way in five to seven days.
In the mean time, keep the jackets handy. This week will stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds until Friday. Highs will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Lows will be in the 20s and lower 30s. Clouds will increase on Friday, then rain arrives Friday night.