A severe weather outbreak remains likely Easter Sunday across the southeast, including here in North Alabama. There will be several waves of storms throughout all of Sunday. Let's talk about each of these rounds hour by hour Sunday.
Round 1 (tomorrow morning): The first round arrives early Sunday morning as a warm front lifts north over our area. While we are not anticipating severe weather tomorrow morning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and perhaps some small hail are possible. The severe weather threat takes shape just after lunchtime Sunday afternoon.
Round 2 (early-late afternoon): During the early afternoon, data sources continue to indicate the development of supercells to our south across Mississippi and central Alabama. These supercells will become severe quickly and will have the potential to produce strong, long track tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging winds. These supercells will move northeastward towards our area. However, the strength of the supercells by the time they arrive in North Alabama depends on what happens following the first round of storms Sunday morning. If we see clearing skies and some sunshine tomorrow afternoon, our atmosphere will destabilize, allowing supercells to thrive as they move into our area, thus increasing the strong tornado potential. If we stay cloudy, we will still see severe storms, but may not be as potent. Whether we see clearing or not tomorrow, there will still be plenty of energy in the atmosphere for storms to feed on, meaning you need to prepare for a significant severe weather outbreak to take place.
Round 3 (late afternoon - late evening): A line of severe storms just ahead of the cold front will move through the area, with the potential for damaging winds in excess of 70 miles per hour, large hail, and brief isolated tornadoes. This line will move through following any supercells that develop during the afternoon. The severe threat finally comes to an end just after midnight.
All modes of severe weather are possible, including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes (some of which could be strong and long track), and heavy rain. Our thinking on the earliest arrival times for potential severe weather tomorrow remains unchanged.
Shoals: 1-4 PM
I-65 Corridor: 2-5 PM
Sand Mountain: 3-6 PM.
Keep in mind these are arrival times. In addition, three to four inches of rain is expected across North Alabama Sunday, meaning flash flooding is likely. Use tonight to prepare for tomorrow's severe weather. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and know where to take shelter when a watch or warning is issued, charge your mobile devices, and stay weather aware. Stay with WAAY 31 on air and online for continuous updates.