While the chance for tropical cyclone development in the western Gulf of Mexico has been reduced to 20% in the next 48 hours, we'll still see the moisture from that system as it's pumped in from the southwest. In combination with a low tracking out of the Plains, the rain develops over the Mississippi River Valley and remains a fixture in the forecast through the beginning of next week.
For Wednesday, an isolated shower or storm is possible before midday, but rain chances increase rapidly through the afternoon, aided by daytime heating. Temperatures start near 70 degrees and climb to the upper 80s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Scattered showers and storms develop in the early afternoon and continue through the evening drive. For Thursday and beyond, the periods of rain and storms will be off and on into the weekend.
In total, the Tennessee Valley can expect three to four inches of rain in the next seven days. While there is no widespread, outlined risk of severe weather, stronger storms with gusty wind and frequent lightning are certainly possible. Heavy rain, ponding, and the potential for localized flooding will be monitored as well.