9 PM UPDATE: Thunderstorms tracking through Mississippi have been trending weaker. Severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings have been fewer since about 8 PM as those storms are weakening.
New data, including hourly observations, indicate the atmosphere stabilizing across the Tennessee Valley as the air cools. A more stabile atmosphere will greatly limit the risk for severe thunderstorms The storms may try to hold on to intensity gained earlier from Mississippi, but the risk for damaging storms should stay confined to areas near the Mississippi state line. If this risk materializes, it will primarily impact Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin counties.
Even if severe, damaging storms do not form, thunderstorms with heavy rain and frequent lightning are still possible. Rainfall rates as high as an inch per hour are possible, which can lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas. Be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is on alert mode before bed tonight, but this new data is easing our concern of severe thunderstorms. Of course, if any severe thunderstorm warnings or tornado warnings are issued for any part of the WAAY 31 coverage area, the WAAY 31 Storm Tracker Weather Team will be live on the air.
Original Post from Monday Afternoon
Severe thunderstorms may bring a heightened risk for damaging winds and an isolated tornado Monday evening to the Tennessee Valley. The biggest risk is for areas between the Mississippi state line and I-65 - including the Shoals. The primary time frame is from just before 9 PM until around midnight. Damaging winds are capable of causing tornado-like damage. An isolated tornado is also possible. Heavy rain can lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas.
A weakening line of thunderstorms will track from Mississippi into Northwest Alabama starting between 8 PM and 10 PM. The storms will weaken as they approach I-65. Showers and thunderstorms can track eastward from I-65 to Huntsville and Sand Mountain between 10 PM and midnight, but the risk for severe thunderstorms diminishes east of I-65.
The last of the storms will exit into Georgia by 1-2 AM. Brief, light showers are still possible throughout Tuesday. Humidity will begin lowering, and morning temperatures will become more comfortably cool for the second half of this week. Expect drying to begin Wednesday and stick around through Friday.
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