Weather this week is going to steadily become more of an issue for us across the Tennessee Valley. The changes begin tonight as an intensifying storm system tracks out of the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains through the night and into Wednesday.
Clouds will build tonight and Wednesday. The day will start with unseasonably warm lower 50s for morning low temperatures. The wind will start increasing to 10-20 mph Wednesday afternoon. Gusts up to around 25 mph are possible. That wind will help to mix up the lower atmosphere and give a boost to our temperatures, so expect low-to-mid 70s for afternoon highs.
A few showers will become possible by late Wednesday evening. Rain will ramp up between midnight and 6 AM, setting us up for a rainy slippery Thursday morning drive in spots. On-and-off rain will fall throughout Thursday. The more on that rain is throughout the day, the more any risk for severe thunderstorms will be tamed. The more off that rain is throughout the day, the higher our risk for severe thunderstorms will be.
If the risk for severe thunderstorms is going to unfold, it will happen as a line of heavy thunderstorms will arrives over Northwest Alabama between about 5 PM and 7 PM Thursday. It will move through the Shoals and track across I-65 near Athens and Decatur and into Huntsville, Madison, and Fayetteville between 7 PM and 9 PM, then it moves into Sand Mountain between 9 PM and 11 PM. Severe thunderstorms can, by definition, produce tornadoes, damaging winds over 58 mph, and large hail. This would be the worst case scenario. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best so you are not caught off guard.
Storms will end Thursday night by midnight or soon after. Cooler, drier weather will prevail from sunrise Friday through at least Tuesday of next week.