Bernie Sanders' ceiling and Joe Biden's 'Avengers'

CNN projects Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders will win the state of Utah and former Vice President Joe Biden will win Massachusetts.

Posted: Mar 4, 2020 9:18 AM
Updated: Mar 4, 2020 9:30 PM


Joe Biden's comeback is one for the history books. A week ago, pundits were predicting his political demise. But 72 hours between his big South Carolina win and Super Tuesday changed the trajectory of this race entirely.

What have we learned from the March 3 voting? Dig into the exit polls to get a sense of the wave caused by the center lane solidifying behind Biden and the very real ceiling Bernie Sanders faces on the far left.

Take a look at the 10-out-of-14 states Biden won: turnout was up basically across the board, with Virginia up 69% from the 2016 primary and Texas turnout up by a half-million votes.

Biden's win came from overwhelming African American support and from voters over 45. But the real insights come from the fact that Biden dominated the 60-70% of Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as 'somewhat liberal' or 'moderate.' Sanders won 'very liberal' voters consistently -- which makes sense for a self-described democratic socialist - but they only made up roughly a quarter of Democratic primary voters.

This reflects the fact that Democratic contenders Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar -- both midwestern centrists -- decided to bow out of the race before Super Tuesday and throw their support behind Biden. This group was dubbed 'the moderate Avengers' on CNN's New Day in an exchange with Wajahat Ali. But catchy pop-culture references aside, this speedy circling of the wagons is exactly the disciplined country-over-ego move that center-right Republican candidates didn't make when they watched the rise of Donald Trump.

But Bernie Sanders' biggest problem is that his support seems to have hit a ceiling. Sanders promised to expand the electoral map by attracting new voters -- but that hasn't happened so far. Instead, he's getting fewer votes in many states than he did four years ago. For example, he won Oklahoma four years ago but lost decisively to Biden this year. Sanders won his home state of Vermont with 50.7% of the vote -- but that was down from 86% four years before.

Yes, Sanders had a big win in Colorado but that was disproportionately due to early voting, where according to the Secretary of State's office roughly 75% of the votes cast came in before March 3. So the momentum from Biden's South Carolina win was not fully reflected.

In the wake of Biden's Super Tuesday surge, Mike Bloomberg decided to bow out of the race and throw his considerable financial weight behind the former vice president for the duration of the campaign. It's a smart, data-driven move considering the fact that Biden and Bloomberg were competing for many of the same voters in the center of the electorate -- and Biden's Super Tuesday margins would have been even bigger if Bloomberg's votes crossed over into his column.

Bloomberg's boost could be critical for the rest of the primary and especially for defeating Donald Trump in the fall.

This race is far from over. The biggest Super Tuesday delegate prize, California, still has not been declared -- and could take weeks to complete. But Sanders seems in strong shape in large part due to early voting. That could also benefit Sanders in next week's Washington State primary, where voters only vote by mail. But Michigan's vote next week will be a key test -- it's a state Sanders stunned the political world by winning over Hillary Clinton in 2016. And it will be a must-win for Democrats against Donald Trump in the fall.

What we're watching is more than the center rallying around Joe Biden. And it's a mistake to call this coalition 'the establishment' or say that they're corporate shills.

Instead, it's a robust reflection of the backbone of the Democratic Party -- black voters, liberals and moderates and blue-collar workers as well as senior citizens. It's urban, suburban and rural. That is not a collection of elites. It's a reflection of main street America that's more concerned with real solutions to the problems they face than democratic socialist rhetoric about revolution.

If that comes as a surprise, it only highlights how social media -- and Twitter in particular -- is a terrible way to gauge support. As a reality check, only 14% of Texas primary voters told exit pollsters they were regular users of Twitter.

The number one issue for Democrats is defeating Donald Trump and from that flows all other concerns, from improving access to health care, combating the climate crisis and addressing gun violence and income inequality. And at a time when the country faces a potential pandemic, it's a reminder of why a competent government let by experts rather than partisan sycophants matters to people's lives.

Joe Biden's big Super Tuesday reflects more than just momentum: it reflects the belief that Biden can beat Trump and Sanders could hurt Democrats in swing districts.

This primary race is not over and deep differences remain. There should be a great debate that does not devolve into personal attacks. But the real test for Democrats will be to assert within their own party a powerful idea that's been lost during the Trump years: that there is ultimately more that unites us than divides us as Americans.

Huntsville/Redstone
Partly Cloudy
57° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 57°
Muscle Shoals
Partly Cloudy
56° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 56°
Huntsville/Madison
Partly Cloudy
56° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 56°
Decatur
Partly Cloudy
56° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 56°
Fort Payne
Partly Cloudy
57° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 57°
WAAY Radar
WAAY WAAY-TV Cam
WAAY Temperatures

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 498076

Reported Deaths: 10094
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson716711387
Mobile36294737
Madison32616468
Tuscaloosa24340421
Montgomery22739519
Shelby22174218
Baldwin19873289
Lee15039157
Calhoun13832293
Morgan13753254
Etowah13390325
Marshall11448211
Houston10124264
Elmore9483190
Limestone9420138
St. Clair9022227
Cullman8984182
Lauderdale8612214
DeKalb8489175
Talladega7606165
Walker6585259
Jackson6545104
Autauga632492
Blount6236127
Colbert6001121
Coffee5264103
Dale4671107
Russell406933
Franklin399878
Covington3993106
Chilton3898103
Escambia379173
Tallapoosa3622143
Clarke344053
Chambers3431111
Dallas3422142
Pike293373
Marion288695
Lawrence284985
Winston258368
Bibb246160
Geneva240370
Marengo238857
Pickens225457
Barbour213651
Hale212269
Fayette202057
Butler201466
Henry183541
Cherokee178039
Monroe166739
Randolph164840
Washington156836
Macon147745
Crenshaw146255
Clay145954
Cleburne139841
Lamar133733
Lowndes132751
Wilcox122925
Bullock117336
Conecuh107024
Perry106127
Sumter99732
Coosa90224
Greene88532
Choctaw55323
Out of AL00
Unassigned00

Tennessee Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 779449

Reported Deaths: 11501
CountyCasesDeaths
Shelby876181509
Davidson81809871
Knox46250587
Hamilton40539463
Rutherford38563386
Williamson25382204
Sumner21448318
Montgomery17484213
Out of TN1706694
Wilson16510211
Unassigned15772127
Sullivan14431274
Blount14141183
Bradley12996141
Washington12818234
Maury12246163
Sevier12109164
Putnam10635170
Madison10123230
Robertson8997121
Hamblen8063165
Anderson8044158
Greene7309145
Tipton6962103
Coffee6418115
Dickson6256106
Gibson6196141
Cumberland6127122
Carter5990155
McMinn594592
Roane592696
Bedford5816120
Loudon571966
Jefferson5688119
Lawrence557483
Monroe536590
Warren532576
Hawkins527195
Dyer5242101
Franklin475785
Fayette468372
Obion436995
Lincoln415662
Rhea415273
Cocke401295
Cheatham394544
Marshall391956
Campbell381859
Weakley379359
Giles375297
Henderson362273
Carroll349181
White339366
Hardeman338864
Macon337273
Hardin331563
Lauderdale309642
Henry301275
Marion294744
Scott288144
Wayne287630
Overton285557
Claiborne283069
McNairy268353
Hickman266541
DeKalb266151
Haywood264960
Smith256936
Grainger244246
Trousdale239822
Morgan230338
Fentress229544
Johnson217138
Chester202348
Bledsoe201010
Crockett197547
Unicoi181447
Polk177722
Cannon176730
Union173033
Grundy169730
Lake167926
Sequatchie157327
Humphreys154921
Decatur153837
Benton151039
Lewis147425
Meigs126722
Jackson125634
Stewart124025
Clay107130
Houston103632
Perry103527
Moore94516
Van Buren79720
Pickett74623
Hancock49712

Community Events