How 2018 midterms compare to past elections

CNN's John Avlon compares the 2018 midterm election projections to past midterm results and trends.

Posted: Nov 7, 2018 5:22 PM
Updated: Nov 7, 2018 5:30 PM

Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump's job as President, according to preliminary CNN exit polls. The results match his approval in recent public opinion polls, which have shown him to be under water nationally for months.

But there's much more to the story. In nearly every state with a key contested Senate or governor's race, he has a positive approval and is over 50%, according to CNN's preliminary exit poll data.

That wide difference in Trump's national vs. his key state approval helps explain the dual storyline emerging on election night of Democratic pickups giving them control of the US House and Republican success holding control of the US Senate by picking off Democratic senators representing states Trump won in 2016.

His highest approval of these states is West Virginia, oddly enough, where slightly more than three-in-five approve of the job he's doing as President, but Democrat Joe Manchin was able to keep his seat.

The exceptions to Trump's key state approval come in Nevada, Wisconsin and Texas, where his approval is slightly under 50% and more closely mirrors the national view.

In Arizona, where Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally are locked in a dead heat, Trump's approval is 52%, with 47% who disapprove.

More than half of Florida voters, 51%, approve of the job Trump is doing as President, compared to 48% who do not. Both Republicans Rick Scott in the Senate race and Ron DeSantis in the governor's race hold leads in Florida.

In fact, Trump's 51% approval in 2018 Florida exit polls is an improvement over the 49% of the vote he received in 2016 votes in Florida.

Trump is over 50% in Georgia as well, a state he won with 51% of the vote in 2016. There is no Senate race this year, but where the Secretary of State Brian Kemp leads Georgia state legislator Stacey Abrams.

He is more popular in Indiana, where 53% of voters approved and 47% disapprove, according to the exit poll data. In that state, Republican Mike Braun was declared as the winner over Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. Trump's 53% approval in Indiana underperforms his more than 57% support there in 2016.

Missouri is extremely close for the President, where 51% approve and 48% disapprove and Republican Josh Hawley holds a commanding lead over incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill. Ohio is around the same as Missouri, 51% approval in the state. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is projected to keep his seat there, but Republican Mike DeWine holds a lead over Democrat Richard Cordray there.

Tennessee is one of the two states in this category where Trump's approval is a net positive above 10 percentage points. Around 57% said they approve of the job he's doing, fitting with the positive news for Republicans as CNN predicts Republican Marsha Blackburn will take a US Senate seat.

Where Trump is under water

Trump is under 50% approval in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz eked out a victory over Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Trump won Texas with more than 52% of the vote in 2016. Cruz got more than 56% of the vote in 2012.

Wisconsin is one of the worst states for the President. Only 45% approve and 54% disapprove, an 11-point net negative for the President. Democrat Tammy Baldwin easily held her seat there and Republican Gov. Scott Walker trails in his bid to be re-elected as governor.

In states without super competitive races, Trump's approval tends to be either much higher or much lower. In California, only a third of voters in 2018 approve of the job he's doing as President, while his approval in North Dakota is 61%. Other super negatives for the President include New Jersey, New York (-21 in both), Virginia (-13), Michigan (-9) and Pennsylvania (-10). His other very positive state is Mississippi (+15). Minnesota and Montana are close, with a less than five percent gap between approval and disapproval.

Note: Data current as of 11:45 p.m. ET

Huntsville
Clear
74° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 74°
Florence
Clear
75° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 72°
Feels Like: 75°
Fayetteville
Overcast
73° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 73°
Decatur
Clear
74° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 74°
Scottsboro
Overcast
75° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 75°
WAAY Radar
WAAY WAAY-TV Cam
WAAY Temperatures

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 44375

Reported Deaths: 984
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson5221152
Montgomery4127103
Mobile4080134
Tuscaloosa228842
Marshall171110
Madison14307
Lee138437
Shelby128423
Morgan11025
Walker93924
Elmore92514
Franklin89514
Dallas8809
Baldwin8649
Etowah73913
DeKalb7195
Butler63328
Chambers62927
Autauga60712
Tallapoosa59169
Russell5520
Unassigned50323
Houston4964
Limestone4950
Lauderdale4906
Lowndes47221
Cullman4524
Pike4295
Colbert3956
St. Clair3822
Coffee3772
Bullock36910
Covington3587
Calhoun3545
Escambia3506
Barbour3492
Hale31121
Talladega3097
Marengo30211
Wilcox2918
Dale2880
Sumter28512
Clarke2746
Jackson2732
Winston2583
Chilton2462
Blount2351
Monroe2352
Pickens2356
Marion22413
Conecuh2097
Randolph2069
Choctaw19512
Macon1949
Bibb1901
Greene1868
Perry1771
Henry1343
Crenshaw1253
Washington1097
Lawrence1080
Cherokee977
Geneva800
Lamar771
Fayette701
Clay652
Coosa581
Cleburne361
Out of AL00

Tennessee Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 51316

Reported Deaths: 645
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Shelby11793200
Davidson11089122
Rutherford298735
Hamilton278135
Sumner161052
Trousdale14985
Williamson131315
Out of TN11857
Knox11717
Wilson94117
Putnam8837
Robertson83411
Sevier8043
Bradley7073
Lake6920
Tipton6455
Unassigned6351
Bledsoe6201
Bedford5705
Montgomery5547
Macon4654
Maury3543
Hardeman3434
Hamblen3404
Fayette3172
Madison2992
Loudon2871
Rhea2860
Dyer2511
McMinn23718
Cheatham2301
Blount2273
Dickson2090
Cumberland1814
Washington1650
Lawrence1636
Lauderdale1453
Anderson1422
Monroe1406
Jefferson1360
Gibson1291
Smith1201
Coffee1190
Sullivan1172
Obion1122
Hardin1087
Greene1032
Cocke940
Haywood922
Marshall911
Franklin873
Wayne860
Hickman800
Warren760
Marion734
McNairy730
White703
DeKalb670
Lincoln640
Weakley641
Grundy621
Overton621
Roane620
Giles601
Carter591
Hawkins572
Unicoi550
Campbell481
Carroll471
Henderson460
Claiborne450
Polk450
Henry440
Johnson440
Grainger420
Sequatchie420
Crockett383
Cannon370
Chester340
Perry340
Meigs320
Humphreys281
Jackson270
Morgan271
Stewart230
Decatur220
Fentress220
Union180
Clay170
Scott170
Houston150
Benton131
Moore120
Van Buren80
Hancock60
Lewis60
Pickett60

 

 

Community Events