STREAMING NOW: Watch Now
CLOSINGS: View Closings

Big win by liberals in Wisconsin is bad news for GOP and Scott Walker

In another major pre-midterm election, the left has won again -- this time in a race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court....

Posted: Apr 4, 2018 2:59 PM
Updated: Apr 4, 2018 2:59 PM

In another major pre-midterm election, the left has won again -- this time in a race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Although the elections are officially nonpartisan, that's really in name only. Liberal candidate Rebecca Dallet won by 12 percentage points over conservative Michael Screnock, who was backed by Republican Gov. Scott Walker. It was the first time Democrats won an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court since 1995.

This Wisconsin result is merely the latest sign that it's not 2016 anymore and Democrats have momentum heading into the congressional midterms this fall.

One of the most interesting trends in the previous special elections in 2017 and 2018 is how the results correlated with the 2016 and 2012 presidential results. What we might expect is that the more recent election (2016) would be more predictive of the race to race correlation than the one before it (2012). That is, the areas that President Donald Trump did worse in relative to Mitt Romney would continue to trend that way, while Democrats would continue to lose ground in the areas where Trump did better than Romney.

We haven't seen that, however, in these elections. The 2012 electoral map has actually given us a better understanding of how each race will go than the 2016 map. Democrats have actually picked up the most ground in areas where Trump did better than Romney.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race was not a special election, but it is another example that Democrats would be wise not to give up on areas that swung heavily to Trump. It's not just that liberal candidate Dallet won a state that Hillary Clinton lost and Barack Obama won twice. Dallet won in a number of areas in the state where Trump was able to rack up huge numbers relative to Romney. Counties like Kenosha, which is home to House Speaker Paul Ryan's congressional district and where Trump won and Romney lost by double digits. In Tuesday's election, Dallet won it by 14 percentage points.

Put another way, Democrats might be enticed to put a lot of midterm eggs in baskets where Clinton did better than Obama (i.e. well-educated areas). The results in the elections so far in Wisconsin and other places suggest that may be a mistake.

The outcome in Wisconsin is interesting for another reason: what it could mean for Walker. While Obama was winning the state twice, Walker won the state three times when Obama was president. Indeed, it seemed like Wisconsin had more races built up as bellwethers than almost anywhere in the country during that time.

One of these key Wisconsin races during the Obama presidency was the high profile state supreme court election in 2011. The race was seen as a referendum on Walker who was passing a conservative agenda with the help of the state legislature. The conservative candidate in that supreme court election squeaked by to victory -- and Walker would go on to win two more elections in the following three years.

Walker is on the ballot once again this November seeking a third four-year term. With an approval rating of 47% in the latest Marquette University Law School poll, he could be vulnerable. That could be why Walker seemed to be hitting the panic button on Tuesday night when he tweeted about a potential Democratic wave hitting the state later this year.

Huntsville
Broken Clouds
69° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 69°
Florence
Overcast
65° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 65°
Fayetteville
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 64°
Decatur
Overcast
70° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 70°
Scottsboro
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 71° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 64°
WAAY Radar
WAAY WAAY-TV Cam
WAAY Temperatures

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 158701

Reported Deaths: 2680
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson23292377
Mobile16916315
Tuscaloosa10345140
Montgomery10250197
Madison935096
Shelby739063
Baldwin665869
Lee654665
Calhoun459961
Marshall439550
Etowah428551
Houston417034
Morgan416435
DeKalb342629
Elmore320853
St. Clair295542
Limestone287230
Walker279492
Talladega266435
Cullman248024
Lauderdale229442
Jackson215915
Autauga205931
Franklin205531
Colbert202132
Russell19493
Blount193225
Chilton188432
Dallas186627
Coffee177111
Dale176351
Covington174729
Escambia172730
Clarke135217
Chambers135044
Pike134113
Tallapoosa132987
Marion108129
Barbour10339
Marengo101922
Butler101140
Winston92913
Geneva9067
Lawrence85832
Pickens85218
Bibb84014
Randolph82716
Hale76830
Washington74912
Clay74412
Cherokee73814
Henry7176
Lowndes71328
Bullock64917
Monroe64610
Crenshaw60830
Perry5926
Fayette57713
Cleburne5698
Wilcox56812
Conecuh56113
Macon53620
Lamar4965
Sumter47221
Choctaw39212
Greene34216
Coosa2043
Out of AL00
Unassigned00

Tennessee Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 247587

Reported Deaths: 3131
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Shelby36376562
Davidson31748337
Knox1273889
Rutherford11893114
Hamilton11758109
Williamson710256
Sumner6114110
Wilson469059
Putnam444056
Montgomery421756
Out of TN407935
Madison378079
Sullivan376346
Bradley358723
Washington347651
Sevier335122
Blount334336
Maury330737
Robertson261441
Hamblen246448
Tipton236723
Dyer223732
Unassigned22063
Gibson216244
Hardeman189833
Coffee189425
Obion178822
Trousdale17758
Greene175052
Bedford170920
Fayette169225
Dickson169119
Anderson168814
McMinn164036
Loudon162311
Lawrence161820
Cumberland161025
Wayne16007
Weakley156126
Carter155633
Jefferson155521
Monroe146228
Warren143910
Lauderdale143617
Henderson141626
Hardin139720
Macon134325
Roane13027
Franklin129519
Haywood129527
Overton122717
Hawkins120925
White118814
Johnson11507
Carroll114826
Marshall113810
McNairy112927
Rhea111118
Cheatham106011
Cocke105814
Campbell103012
Bledsoe10174
Smith99113
Lake9853
Giles96936
Fentress91611
Lincoln8973
Crockett86820
Hickman80315
Henry79611
Marion7739
Chester73214
DeKalb73217
Decatur66311
Grainger6114
Grundy57011
Union5433
Claiborne5266
Polk51113
Jackson4525
Humphreys4504
Morgan4437
Houston42017
Benton4199
Unicoi4183
Cannon4152
Clay40613
Lewis4033
Scott3845
Sequatchie3462
Stewart33111
Meigs3276
Perry3082
Pickett2747
Moore2692
Van Buren2071
Hancock1193

Community Events