Just wanted to give everyone a quick update on the weather situation this afternoon across the TN Valley...
NO SEVERE WEATHER FOR NOW: Right now, as of 3 PM, we are not seeing any thunderstorms in Alabama. However, there is a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas until 9 PM this evening where some ferocious thunderstorms are ongoing. There is also a significant complex of storms near and just southwest of Paducah, KY, moving southeast.
ANALYSIS: We are looking at a surface boundary draped from far southern Illinois back into northwestern Arkansas with a weak surface low pressure center over southern Missouri right along said front. A mid-level jet max about 18,000 feet up is providing enhanced wind energy for these storms to continue developing and sustaining themselves. Furthermore, the atmosphere is extremely unstable over areas to our west, but here in the Valley, we are seeing relatively less instability but the values I am seeing would still support thunderstorm development into northwestern sections of the area by a little later this afternoon.
HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT TO THE NORTHWEST: The atmospheric parameters certainly suggest the highest severe weather threat will be just outside our coverage area over west-central Tennessee back into far southwestern Kentucky and northeast Arkansas. The highest wind energy will also pass to the north, but as we've seen in the past couple of days, if any of these storms can organize into a bow echo with an established cold pool, then sometimes they can over-compensate for the relative lack in severe weather parameters.
WATCHING STORMS THIS EVENING: Some of the high-resolution model guidance does bring some of these thunderstorms into northwest and north Alabama later this afternoon into this evening. While the peak of their intensity should occur to the northwest of our area, we can't rule out some strong to severe storms after 6 PM over northwestern parts of Alabama, and as early as after 4PM over some of our southern Tennessee Counties. Should any severe storms materialize, damaging winds will be the primary hazard.