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Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Sunday 01/25/2015
Sunday night forecast discussion

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Showers and even a few rumbles of thunder are possible through the overnight hours.  Nothing severe is expected, but after midnight we could see some locations changing over to snow, mainly Lincoln, Franklin in TN and Jackson and Madison in AL.  No accumulation is expected from this.  Temperatures will bottom out in the mid and upper 30’s.

EARLY WEEK:  Expect much cooler temperatures to start off the week.  Highs for Monday run in the mid 40’s with overnight lows dropping into the lower 30’s.  Skies will be clearing late Monday giving way to sunny skies by Tuesday.  Temperatures will start to rebound on Tuesday with a few locations making it back into the 50’s. 

MID TO LATE WEEK:  Temps continue to climb getting to the mid 50’s by Thursday but we will watch for another cold front to come in and bring rain to the forecast as well as knocking our temps back down into the 40’s.

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Saturday 01/24/2015
More wet weather, then a warm up

THROUGH MONDAY:  Sunday we can expect a few isolated showers starting during the afternoon hours.  Highs Sunday will top off at 53 degrees prior to showers moving in.  Showers will continue into the overnight hours and could see some change over to flurries after midnight.  Monday will be much colder dropping into the lower 40s for our highs with just a few clouds through the day. 

MIDWEEK:  Heading into the middle part of the week, temps will slowly climb back into the mid 50’s for our highs.  Lows will still be cold around the freezing mark. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM:  By Thursday we are going to watch another system that will bring more rain chances into the forecast and knock the temperatures back down into the 40’s for our highs.

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Friday 01/23/2015
Fri. Night Rain/Snow Mix, Drier by Sat. Afternoon

FRI. NIGHT/SAT. MORNING: By Friday Night the TN Valley will be on the back end of this Upper level disturbance. Cooler air will filter into our area and we will start to see this rain change over to a Rain/Snow mix by around 10 p.m. This will move through the area West to East with the Shoals seeing the first chance for winter precip. 


There is a short window were we could see a period of all snow falling as this system moves through the rest of the valley. In higher elevations I'm expecting to see a dusting to a 1/2' on grassy surfaces. If your planning to travel late Friday or Saturday morning, there is a possibility of overpasses and bridges becoming icy, overall I think our surface will be too wet and warm. Still keep it slow on the roads!

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Rain/Snow mix should end by daylight across the valley. Expect clearing throughout the day, and another cool afternoon. Highs will only make it into the mid 40s.  

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Wintry Mix To End Week

An upper level disturbance from the Gulf will push to the South and East of the Tennessee Valley throughout the day today and into tonight. A northerly wind wrapping around this system will continue to give us the chance of seeing and rain/sleet mix throughout the day, and a change of rain to snow by 11 P.M. tonight.

FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON: As temperatures hover into the mid 30's to lower 40's this morning at the surface, the majority of us will be running into a moderate rainfall and dense fog for our commute into work. However, we cannot rule out a chance of seeing a mix of sleet across the Valley as a northeasterly wind in the middle levels of the atmosphere could have the potential to partially freeze the rain drops before they hit the surface. Southern Tennessee has the greatest chance of picking up on a rain/sleet mix throughout the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: As this upper level disturbance pushes to the Carolinas, the northeasterly flow wrapping around this upper level disturbance will become stronger, causing temperatures to cool in all levels of the atmosphere to give us a change of rain to snow showers. The timing looks to be from 11 P.M. in Northwest Alabama and Wayne & Lawrence Cos. TN until 7 A.M. in Northeast Alabama. A possibly dusting of snow to 1/2 inch of snow is expected to accumulate in Southern Tennessee, Northeast Alabama, and possible the Shoals. The rest of the Valley, including counties such as Madison, Limestone, Morgan, and Lawrence in Northern Alabama have the potential of snow accumulating on grassy areas and rooftops. Be careful throughout late Friday night and into Saturday morning of bridges and underpasses becoming slick.

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Thursday 01/22/2015
A Rainy Friday With Some Snow At Night

TONIGHT: Rain will spread across the Valley tonight. So that by the morning commute we will see plenty of rain across the Valley.

FRIDAY: It looks to be a fairly rainy and chilly day. Rain amounts will be between 0.50" and 1.00". Temperatures won't warm up much either with highs expected to be in the low to mid 40s.


FRIDAY NIGHT: Now this is where it gets a little more difficult to forecast. Models have been flipping back and forth with cold enough air in the Valley to produce either snow or a rain/snow mix. The GFS model is the most aggressive with the cold and snow. Even putting some small accumulations in southern Tennessee and parts of the Shoals.

(GFS: MSLP & Precipitation Type at 6 a.m. Saturday/Total snowfall thru Saturday morning)


While the NAM has been consistent the last several runs with showing a change from rain to rain/snow. The two biggest differences is the amount of cold air pulled behind the system and the amount of moisture. (NAM: Simulated Radar at 12 a.m. Saturday)


Between model guidance and what looks most probable I think the blend of the models is best. They are both correct in different solutions. That is why I think we will have a changeover from rain to a rain/snow mix generally after midnight. Just not as prominent as what the GFS is indicating. Now other models have been leaning more towards the NAM but as far as initialization of the models the GFS is doing better.   123456

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Back to Gloomy, Wet Weather

FEW RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY: As our next coastal low will begin to develop off of the coast of eastern Texas, look for a few spotty showers to move in by this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the lower 50's for highs and  a continuation of cloud cover and stray showers will keep overnight lows mild, into the upper 30's.

MESSY FRIDAY: As we head into Friday, this is where our forecast gets very tricky. The counterclockwise rotation of the coastal low will try to funnel in a strong flow of Northeasterly wind, cooling temperatures down throughout the day. This could possibly change rain showers that we'll see in the morning into possible light snow showers. The Shoals, the highest elevations of Northeast Alabama and Southern Tennessee is favored to see the highest potential of a change of rain into snow. No more than a dusting is expected, but that's enough to cause slick roadways and possible black ice Saturday morning.

CLEARING UP SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Northwesterly winds move back in to bring in drier air throughout the late morning hours Saturday, decreasing the cloud cover and giving us a more tranquil forecast Saturday afternoon into Sunday. High temperatures will rebound back into the upper 40's and lower 50's.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE MONDAY: Lower pressure from the Great Lakes will sweep farther South over the Smokey Mountains, giving us a chance of seeing a few flurries flying throughout the day on Monday. No accumulation is expected. High temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 40's.

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Wednesday 01/21/2015
Rain On The Way With Some Snow Possible

THURSDAY: It will be a dry day but also an overcast one. Our system will begin to move into the Valley Thursday night bringing in the rain from the SW to NE.

FRIDAY: Rain will be constant in many places. Highest amounts will be the farther south you live. Russellville, Moulton and Cullman should see the highest amounts of rain. 12

FRIDAY NIGHT: We are looking at about a 6-8 hour window for an opportunity to become a rain/snow mix. That would mostly be for southern Tennessee. But also the Shoals and extreme northern Alabama. Most of Alabama should stay as rain. 123

SATURDAY: Everything will be pushing out of the Valley very early Saturday morning. We will become mostly sunny but highs will be staying in the upper 40s.

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Cooling Down, Messy End To Workweek

PLEASANT WEDNESDAY: Although we'll see plenty of sunshine today across the Tennessee Valley, winds will drive in from the Northwest, cooling us down into the mid 50's for today. It's all due in part to a cold front that passed through the Valley last night, shifting our winds from the Southwest to the Northwest. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 30's.

CLOUDY, COOL THURSDAY: Clouds will increase throughout the day today as our next coastal low will begin to develop off of the coast of eastern Texas. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40's for highs and shower activity will start to move into the Valley by Thursday night. Clouds will keep overnight lows mild, into the upper 30's, so I do expect we'll see just light rain showers Thursday night.

MESSY FRIDAY: As we head into Friday, this is where our forecast gets very tricky. The counterclockwise rotation of the coastal low will try to funnel in a Northeasterly wind, cooling temperatures down throughout the day. This could possibly change rain showers that we'll see in the morning into possible light snow showers. The Shoals and Southern Tennessee is favored to see the highest potential of a change of rain into snow. No more than a dusting is expected, but that's enough to cause slick roadways and possible black ice Saturday morning.

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Tuesday 01/20/2015
Cooler Weather On The Way Along With Some Rain

TONIGHT: There is some moisture well behind the cold front that may be able to produce a few raindrops for our counties in Tennessee. Odds are not much if anything will fall but still a possibility.


THURSDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: Our next major system will move well to the south and gather up sufficient amounts of moisture. Models have been doing much better as far as the placement of the rain. The models have been backing off the cold air moving in behind the system. So the chances of seeing even some wet snowflakes mixing in are just about done. Rain will be likely Friday with it ending before dawn Saturday morning.


SYSTEM NEXT WEEK: We are keeping a close eye on our system next Monday. This one may produce enough cold air on the backside to start with light rain and ending with light snow.

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Goodbye Warmth, Hello Rain and Cold


LAST DAY OF WARMTH: Southerly winds will continue to move in for Tuesday's forecast, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 60's with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be light coming in at 5 to 10 mph. By Tuesday evening, a cold front will slide through the Valley, possibly causing a few stray showers in Southern Tennessee and sending in a Northwesterly wind that will continue to cool us down for the rest of the week.

COOLER WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: With a Northwesterly wind, temperatures will fall into the mid 50's on Wednesday and upper 40's on Thursday even though we'll see a decent amount of sunshine in the forecast.


COASTAL LOW BRINGS WOES: By Friday morning, a coastal low will build up over the Gulf Coast, sending in isolated showers over the Tennessee Valley as early as Friday morning and continuing with us until Saturday afternoon. Right now, our computer models are not in total agreement with this system, especially the arrival of cold air that will sink into the Valley that has the potential of changing these rain showers into possible snow showers. We'll keep an eye out for this and continue to update you on any changes as we head closer to the week.

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Apparent armed robbery at Hardee's in Five Points

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Slimming down: AMC legal begins restructuring

Army Materiel Command leadership is taking some of the first steps towards streamlining operations in an effort to better operate in an ever shrinking financial environment. The process has already begun within the command’s legal department.

Grant provides home rehabilitation money for veterans

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