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Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Wednesday 01/28/2015
Plenty Of Sunshine For Wednesday

Higher pressure will build in over the Tennessee Valley for Wednesday, giving us plenty of sunshine and temperatures will soar into the mid 50's. It's going to be a beautiful day so get out there and enjoy it!

Heading into Thursday, a weak cold front will move through the Valley during the afternoon time. With little moisture associated with this disturbance, at most we'll see a few spotty showers around the Valley. The biggest concern will be gusty winds moving at 15-20 mph with this cold front and a slight drop in temperatures from the upper 50's on Thursday to lower 50's on Friday with clearing skies.

Weekend weather will entail a disturbance moving in from the Southwest. With a southerly wind in place, a good amount of moisture will move in, giving us scattered showers and maybe a couple rumbles of thunder throughout the day Sunday. Possibly one inch of rain accumulation could fall across the Valley. Make plans outdoors for Saturday afternoon if you need to attend to any gardening or yard work.

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Tuesday 01/27/2015
Mild And Dry Before Rain Comes This Weekend

WEDNESDAY: High pressure will move to our northeast and give us plentiful sunshine. Highs will make it into the the low to mid 50s.

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THURSDAY: Even with a cold front moving through. It won't stop those temperatures from shooting into the mid to upper 50s across the Valley. There should be a few rain drops falling from the sky but don't expect much.

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WEEKEND: Our next rain maker will move in Saturday night and last through Sunday night. Totals as of right now could be over 1" in some places.

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Sunshine Is Back!

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Higher pressure will move in Tuesday and Wednesday allowing plenty of sunshine and temperatures climbing back up into the upper 40's to mid 50's. A light breeze will kick in from the Northwest at 10-15 mph this afternoon. Otherwise, it'll be a pretty nice two days across the Valley!

ANOTHER COOL FRONT THURSDAY: A rather weak cool front will skim through the Valley Thursday afternoon, giving us a chance on a few spotty showers with breezy winds. The biggest change will be cooler air moving in from the North dipping us down from 57 on Thursday down to 48 Friday. 

UNSETTLED WEEKEND: Look for a increase in cloud cover Saturday as our next disturbance will move in from the Southwest. Expect scattered showers to start late Saturday night into all day Sunday. It is possible we could pick up on a few thunderstorms and an inch of rain accumulations.

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Monday 01/26/2015
Sprinkles And Flurries Tuesday More Rain This Weekend

TUESDAY: The cloud cover looks to hold on pretty strong with northwest flow. We may even see a few flurries or sprinkles of rain early for areas northeast of Huntsville. 12

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: These will be our best days in the forecast. Highs will be back in the 50s with sunshine and dry weather. We will be on the lookout to see how our next cold front progresses. This could some scattered showers late Thursday into Thursday night.

WEEKEND: Our next good chance for rain will arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning.

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Cold & Dreary Start To Workweek

GLOOMY MONDAY-TUESDAY: It's going to be a chilly start to the workweek, as two cold fronts will move in, one Monday morning and another Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will only reach into the mid to lower 40's thanks to the cloud cover moving in with these systems.  Winds will also picking up throughout the day, the wind chill to make it feel likes it's into the upper 20's and mid 30's, so take a warm jacket with you before you leave work. With a little moisture associated with these cold fronts, Northeast Alabama will see a light rain/snow mix Monday morning and Monday night into Tuesday morning, with no snow accumulation.

WARMING UP WEDNESDAY: Higher pressure will move in for the middle of the workweek, allowing southerly winds to move in and warm us back up into the mid to upper 50's. 

FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY: Another weak cold front will move in for Thursday, producing a few showers throughout the late afternoon hours. Temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 40's.

UNSETTLED WEEKEND: We have two different tracks on how this weekend could pan out. The GFS model run keeps us into the 50's with a few isolated showers Saturday night into Sunday midday. The other, the European model, keeps us cold with the potential of a wintry mix. Right now, it is too early to call what exactly will happen, so tune into WAAY 31 First News Storm Force Weather Team with the latest details later this week!

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Sunday 01/25/2015
Sunday night forecast discussion

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Showers and even a few rumbles of thunder are possible through the overnight hours.  Nothing severe is expected, but after midnight we could see some locations changing over to snow, mainly Lincoln, Franklin in TN and Jackson and Madison in AL.  No accumulation is expected from this.  Temperatures will bottom out in the mid and upper 30’s.

EARLY WEEK:  Expect much cooler temperatures to start off the week.  Highs for Monday run in the mid 40’s with overnight lows dropping into the lower 30’s.  Skies will be clearing late Monday giving way to sunny skies by Tuesday.  Temperatures will start to rebound on Tuesday with a few locations making it back into the 50’s. 

MID TO LATE WEEK:  Temps continue to climb getting to the mid 50’s by Thursday but we will watch for another cold front to come in and bring rain to the forecast as well as knocking our temps back down into the 40’s.

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Saturday 01/24/2015
More wet weather, then a warm up

THROUGH MONDAY:  Sunday we can expect a few isolated showers starting during the afternoon hours.  Highs Sunday will top off at 53 degrees prior to showers moving in.  Showers will continue into the overnight hours and could see some change over to flurries after midnight.  Monday will be much colder dropping into the lower 40s for our highs with just a few clouds through the day. 

MIDWEEK:  Heading into the middle part of the week, temps will slowly climb back into the mid 50’s for our highs.  Lows will still be cold around the freezing mark. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM:  By Thursday we are going to watch another system that will bring more rain chances into the forecast and knock the temperatures back down into the 40’s for our highs.

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Friday 01/23/2015
Fri. Night Rain/Snow Mix, Drier by Sat. Afternoon

FRI. NIGHT/SAT. MORNING: By Friday Night the TN Valley will be on the back end of this Upper level disturbance. Cooler air will filter into our area and we will start to see this rain change over to a Rain/Snow mix by around 10 p.m. This will move through the area West to East with the Shoals seeing the first chance for winter precip. 

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There is a short window were we could see a period of all snow falling as this system moves through the rest of the valley. In higher elevations I'm expecting to see a dusting to a 1/2' on grassy surfaces. If your planning to travel late Friday or Saturday morning, there is a possibility of overpasses and bridges becoming icy, overall I think our surface will be too wet and warm. Still keep it slow on the roads!

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Rain/Snow mix should end by daylight across the valley. Expect clearing throughout the day, and another cool afternoon. Highs will only make it into the mid 40s.  

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Wintry Mix To End Week

An upper level disturbance from the Gulf will push to the South and East of the Tennessee Valley throughout the day today and into tonight. A northerly wind wrapping around this system will continue to give us the chance of seeing and rain/sleet mix throughout the day, and a change of rain to snow by 11 P.M. tonight.

FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON: As temperatures hover into the mid 30's to lower 40's this morning at the surface, the majority of us will be running into a moderate rainfall and dense fog for our commute into work. However, we cannot rule out a chance of seeing a mix of sleet across the Valley as a northeasterly wind in the middle levels of the atmosphere could have the potential to partially freeze the rain drops before they hit the surface. Southern Tennessee has the greatest chance of picking up on a rain/sleet mix throughout the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: As this upper level disturbance pushes to the Carolinas, the northeasterly flow wrapping around this upper level disturbance will become stronger, causing temperatures to cool in all levels of the atmosphere to give us a change of rain to snow showers. The timing looks to be from 11 P.M. in Northwest Alabama and Wayne & Lawrence Cos. TN until 7 A.M. in Northeast Alabama. A possibly dusting of snow to 1/2 inch of snow is expected to accumulate in Southern Tennessee, Northeast Alabama, and possible the Shoals. The rest of the Valley, including counties such as Madison, Limestone, Morgan, and Lawrence in Northern Alabama have the potential of snow accumulating on grassy areas and rooftops. Be careful throughout late Friday night and into Saturday morning of bridges and underpasses becoming slick.

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Thursday 01/22/2015
A Rainy Friday With Some Snow At Night

TONIGHT: Rain will spread across the Valley tonight. So that by the morning commute we will see plenty of rain across the Valley.

FRIDAY: It looks to be a fairly rainy and chilly day. Rain amounts will be between 0.50" and 1.00". Temperatures won't warm up much either with highs expected to be in the low to mid 40s.

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FRIDAY NIGHT: Now this is where it gets a little more difficult to forecast. Models have been flipping back and forth with cold enough air in the Valley to produce either snow or a rain/snow mix. The GFS model is the most aggressive with the cold and snow. Even putting some small accumulations in southern Tennessee and parts of the Shoals.

(GFS: MSLP & Precipitation Type at 6 a.m. Saturday/Total snowfall thru Saturday morning)

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While the NAM has been consistent the last several runs with showing a change from rain to rain/snow. The two biggest differences is the amount of cold air pulled behind the system and the amount of moisture. (NAM: Simulated Radar at 12 a.m. Saturday)

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Between model guidance and what looks most probable I think the blend of the models is best. They are both correct in different solutions. That is why I think we will have a changeover from rain to a rain/snow mix generally after midnight. Just not as prominent as what the GFS is indicating. Now other models have been leaning more towards the NAM but as far as initialization of the models the GFS is doing better.   123456

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