Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Monday 10/20/2014
The Redundant Forecast

TONIGHT: A weak cold front will pass but the cloud cover that has moved in this afternoon will last tonight. If areas become fairly clear patchy fog will be possible by morning.

GENERAL TREND: There will be an abundant amount of high pressure this week. Not only at the surface but in the atmosphere aloft. The only minor disturbance that comes through will be Wednesday and Thursday. Since there won't be much moisture we will only see a few added clouds during those afternoons. Temperatures will sway on the "average" side this week. The average high for Huntsville for the next five days will be 73/72 degrees.  Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

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Thursday 10/16/2014
Sunshine And More Sunshine!

THIS EVENING: The cloud cover is just about out of here and we are in store for a pleasant evening. Temperatures will cool rapidly once the sun sets so if you have any outdoor plans this evening to just grab a sweatshirt or light jacket just in case. SCREENCAP

CRUISE CONTROL FORECAST: It's been a while but we will be sunny, cool and comfortable the next several days. The main reason will be a large ridge in the Jet Stream starting this weekend and should last through the end of next week. That will apply a downward force in the atmosphere which makes it tough for clouds, rain or really much to form.

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Wednesday 10/15/2014
Clouds For One More Day Then Sunshine!

UPPER LEVEL LOW: We just have another 24-30 hours left to deal with this upper level low. This will cause about half of the Valley to see mostly sunny skies while the other half stays mostly cloudy. Huntsville will be in the middle so we will start off Thursday with mostly cloudy/overcast and by the mid to late afternoon partly sunny.

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WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday will be cooler than normal. A reinforcing cold front will pass through Saturday. This will be our 850mb temps from 11/13 degrees Celsius to 3/4 degrees Celsius in the afternoon. So the highs on Saturday will be in the low 70s. Sunday will stay cool and we probably won't hit 70. 

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LONG TERM: This will be a relaxing week for many as high pressure at the surface moves in along with riding aloft. This will keep the sunshine around the better half of a week with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Keep those blankets close!

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Tuesday 10/14/2014
From Cloudy To Beautiful

UPPER LEVEL LOW: This will be the main cause of our weather the next two days. It will keep the cloud cover almost locked into the Tennessee Valley and give us a small chance for a few showers. The best chances for showers will be for southern Tennessee and extreme northern Alabama.

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NICE STREAK OF WEATHER: Once the upper level low leaves we will have a reinforcing cold front push through. This will move out any and all cloud cover for a few days and keep our high and low temperatures around average.

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Monday 10/13/2014
Strong To Severe Storms Tonight

LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Even with the line to our west we could see some storms and supercells push from south/southwest to north/northeast late this afternoon and early evening.

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TONIGHT:   A line of very strong and severe storms has been moving across the country the last 36 hours. There have been many reports of damaging winds (Winds 60+ mph). That will also be our main threat tonight. There is a decent tornado threat but it will be greatest the closer to live to Mississippi. (Tornado Outlook is a probability %)

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TIMING: This line has been very difficult to time out due to a number of reasons. As of 2 p.m. this is the best estimate for the squall line to go through these areas. The line should be reaching the MS/AL state line around 8-9 p.m. Athens, Decatur and Huntsville around midnight to 2 a.m. Scottsboro and Fort Payne 4-6 a.m..

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Friday 10/10/2014
Some Rain This Weekend But Severe Storms Likely Monday Night

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Daily rain chances will be the main theme through the weekend. Different fronts and disturbances will give us those chances. Best chances will be Friday night and Saturday.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Models have been doing better on the timing with the cold front. GFS, EURO and now the NAM all time the rain and storms to start Monday evening. The difference is how long will the event last. The Euro has the event lasting until Tuesday evening which would make for a long lived event. The GFS has been consistent with pushing out the rain and storms Tuesday morning. It should be noted that this event has not been in the medium forecast model range yet. So it will be interesting to see how the NAM and WRF handle it.

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**These images are all for the time of 7 p.m. Monday using the GFS model**

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The trend has not changed at all the last 48 hours. Medium range models are able to finally reach the beginning of this event. There is great consistency for the beginning of the event. 

This still looks like it will be a line of strong and severe storms. We have sufficient moisture, very strong low level winds, decent wind shear and a strong mid-level shortwave. This will be something we will continue to watch out for over the next couple of days.

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Thursday 10/09/2014
Warming, Rain Chances & Severe Weather Possibilities

THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Daily rain chances will be the main theme through the weekend. Different fronts and disturbances will give us those chances. Best chances will be Friday night and Saturday.

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MONDAY & TUESDAY: Models have been doing better on the timing with the cold front. GFS and Euro both time the rain and storms to start Monday evening. The difference is how long will the event last. The Euro has the event lasting until Tuesday evening which would make for a long lived event. The GFS has been consistent with pushing out the rain and storms Tuesday morning. It should be noted that this event has not been in the medium forecast model range yet. So it will be interesting to see how the NAM and WRF handle it.

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**These images are all for the time of 7 p.m. Monday using the GFS model**

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This looks like a decent set up for severe weather for the Tennessee Valley. We have sufficient moisture, strong low level winds, strong wind shear and a strong mid-level shortwave. This will be something we will watch out for over the coming days.

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Wednesday 10/08/2014
Chances For Rain Then A Strong Cold Front

THIS EVENING: A surface boundary is located just south of the Tennessee River. This has created a few showers and storms but some of them may become severe. Damaging winds and large hail would be the only threats. Once we get past 10 p.m. our storm chances will diminish.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Daily rain chances will be the main theme through the weekend. Different fronts and disturbances will give us those chances. Best chances will be Friday late afternoon/evening and then again on Sunday.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: I'm expecting a cold front to move through during this time frame. Models are still hesitant on the timing but the strength is agreed upon.

**These images are all for the time of 1 a.m. Tuesday morning using the GFS model**

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This looks like a decent set up for severe weather for the Tennessee Valley. We have sufficient moisture, strong low level winds, strong wind shear and a strong mid-level shortwave. This will be something we will watch out for over the coming days.

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Tuesday 10/07/2014
Good Breathing Air But Some Rain

OVERNIGHT: A weak cold front will slide through southern Tennessee and extreme northern Alabama. A few showers/storms will be possible between midnight and 4 a.m.

OVERALL PATTERN: There will be daily rain chances for the short term and long term. Even though some of us may not like the rain I think I can sway to think otherwise. First reason...breathing!

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Our pollen counts have been down with the recent rainfall and with the expected rainfall. The next reason would be our lack of rainfall in the past couple of months.

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We don't technically have a drought situation across the Tennessee Valley but in southern Cullman County they are considered in a moderate drought. All other areas in yellow are considered abnormally dry.  Hopefully I have made a good point to be thankful for the rain this week.

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Monday 10/06/2014
Strong To Severe Storms This Evening

LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: There will be a line of storms that will begin to develop in western Kentucky and Tennessee. Those storms will begin between 2-4 p.m. By the time those storms each our viewing area it won't be until past 4 p.m. with the greatest chance for storms between 5-8 p.m.

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The potential for severe weather will be there but it looks like wind and large will be the primary threats as the line passes.

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The threat for tornadoes is low but not at zero. This event could almost be compared to last Friday with the tornado threat. Quick spin-ups are possible.

The best chances for the severe weather will be in southern Tennessee and NW Alabama.

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Four sent to hospital when car, city bus collide

Car, city bus collide
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Bond revoked in Moyers capital murder case

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Cemetery stroll offers unknown insight to local history

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