Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Friday 04/18/2014
Nice Easter Weather for the Tennessee Valley

Capture

The latest regional satellite/radar imagery shows a persistent rain east of Birmingham into Georgia and the Carolinas. We've just got cloud cover here in the valley, with a few sprinkles over far southeastern sections of the area. There has been no real movement in the rain line over the past several hours, so I'm not expecting much in the way of rainfall overnight tonight. If any light showers occur, they should occur south and east of Huntsville. 

Capture2

The system that's bringing all of the rain to our south and east is in no real hurry to get out of here; that is because it is actually developed into a cut-off low in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. What this basically means is that it has become detached from the primary storm track that is situated to the north. Still, I am expecting most places to see sunshine tomorrow afternoon, but the more likely locations for this will be west of I-65. Highs will range from the upper 60s east to the mid 70s west. 

Capture3

We should be under the influence of some mid-level ridging for your Easter Sunday, and that means lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. I've got the "great" on the forecast graphic; sunshine and mid to upper 70s will be the story. All of the outdoor festivities such as the Easter egg hunts will not be in weather jeopardy, so that's good news! 

Capture4

The sunny days will be short-lived as another disturbance organizes to the northwest in the form of another cool front. Thankfully, the airmass behind this front is no where near as cold as the last one that brought us some wintry precip. I'm expecting rain chances to climb by Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon as highs remain in the 70s. A few sprinkles could arrive as early as Monday night, but all of the rain should be out of the region by Wednesday as drier and slightly cooler builds in from the north. Some 80 degree temperatures are possible by Thursday as a southerly flow develops. This will help increase moisture gradually, and therefore be ready for some additional rain chances by next Saturday. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Some Showers Tonight; Gradually Becoming Sunny Saturday in the TN Valley

Capture

The rain has been relentless over south Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle throughout today, and thankfully we have not gotten the brunt of the heaviest rain this go-around. Radar estimates some spots over south Alabama got upwards of 5" with lighter totals with northward extent. 

Capture2

Regional VIPIR radar imagery shows the swath of heavy rain from southeast Alabama into basically the entire state of Georgia, north of a stationary front stretching east-northeast from a low pressure system over the far northeast Gulf. This system will be relatively slow to move, so I'm expecting widespread rain to continue over Georgia and far east Alabama for the next several hours. 

Capture3

For your Friday evening, our forecast model shows the edge of the light rain shower activity pressing into far southeastern sections of the TN valley - places like Gadsden, Centre, and Fort Payne could see a few showers during the overnight hours into Saturday morning. 

Capture4

Those pesky showers/clouds will linger into Saturday morning as well for basically the I-59 corridor and points eastward into Georgia. The rain should not be heavy in intensity, and the western half of the area actually should see some morning sunshine. Everyone in the valley should see some sunshine by Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid 70s west and upper 60s to near 70 in the east thanks to the lingering cloud cover. 

I'll have a full check of your 7-day forecast coming up on WAAY-31 First News at 4 and 5 this afternoon; plus, I'll have a fresh discussion concerning your Easter Forecast and behind coming up a little later this evening right here on the blog. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Thursday 04/17/2014
Early Weekend Rain Chances; Excellent Easter Weather

Capture

As we round another week here in the Tennessee Valley, we've got some more changes in the forecast, but thankfully I'm not talking severe weather or freezing conditions. I'm talking about an increase in cloud cover and some rain chances arriving throughout tomorrow as well. 

Capture2

We actually have two separate systems traversing the Southeast - 1) the approaching front to the west, and 2) the surface low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Clearly, the stronger of the two will be the southern system in the Gulf. By 7 AM in the morning, the surface low should be at a point a little south of Pensacola with widespread rain to the north and east of the circulation center. Notice the rain may spread as far north as I-20 at this point. 

Capture3

By 8 PM tomorrow night, the aforementioned front has basically washed out and lost its identity by this time. The surface low will be working into the Florida Peninsula/southern Georgia, plenty of moisture will exist on the north and northwest side of the system. There will be a sharp gradient in the cloud/rain coverage and the rain-free areas tomorrow night, and for right now I"m expecting that to be over the far southeastern sections of the viewing area. 

Capture4

Taking a little bit of a closer look with our in house higher resolution model, it suggests the bulk of the rain will be mostly outside the Tennessee Valley counties. However, I'm a little hesitant to believe this entirely; I think the best course of action is to use a blend of the two forecast models I've shown here. The bottom line is the best chance at a few passing showers will be over the southeastern sections of the area, including places like Gadsden, Fort Payne, Guntersville, and Scottsboro. While a shower cannot be ruled out across the entire TN Valley, these areas stand the best chance of rain tomorrow night into early Saturday morning. 

Capture5

That surface low pressure system will slowly move eastward on Saturday, but lingering clouds and rain will be likely especially over north Georgia. Some of this activity could linger over far eastern and northeastern Alabama through midday, but the majority of the valley should see a clearing sky with temperatures rising into the low and mid 70s by the afternoon. In places where the clouds linger the longest, temperatures will hold in the mid 60s. 

Capture6

Everyone wants to know about the Easter forecast, and the good news is that there is lots of sunshine on the way! Temperatures will top out in the mid to potentially upper 70s with a good supply of sunshine. We will be under the influence of mid-level ridging which suggests sinking air, and therefore I'm not expecting any rain chances Sunday. Our next rain chance will return late Monday into Tuesday, but even then the rain chance is only at 20%. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Pleasant Thursday Evening Ahead for the TN Valley

CaptureThe weather is feeling fantastic across the Valley this afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s area-wide with lots of sunshine. There's been a few high clouds throughout the day, but these are way up in the atmosphere above 25,000 feet and pose no threat for rain. 

Capture2

Heading throughout the evening, temperatures will hover in the mid 60s by 6 PM with a good supply of sunshine continuing. Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 50s by the late evening with a bit more cloud cover likely to spread into the area during the overnight hours. A stray shower is possible towards the Shoals, but the confidence in this is not high enough to warrant any rain chances. 

Capture3

A dynamic, complex storm system will quickly move through the Southeastern states/Gulf of Mexico tomorrow that will spin up a surface low pressure system over the Florida Panhandle. We will be on the northern periphery of this system, but the cloud cover will be around tomorrow and rain is possible by tomorrow night. Our forecast model shows some rain for southeastern sections of the TN Valley by 8-10 PM tomorrow night. The rain shouldn't be overly heavy, but be aware of some passing showers in these areas. The rain could last into Saturday morning as well before tapering off into the afternoon. 

I will have more information on the rest of your weekend forecast as well as some additional rain chances next week coming up in another blog post a little later this evening. Be sure to join me on WAAY-TV for First News at 5 this afternoon and at 10 this evening for all your forecast details. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Wednesday 04/16/2014
This Could Our Last Freeze Until The Fall

FROM CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SPENCER DENTON

Updated WEDNESDAY 5:00PM

LEAVING THE FREEZING WEATHER BEHIND! Lows were on target this morning ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. No records were broken in Huntsville or Muscle Shoals. Everyone stays above freezing tonight with lows generally in the mid to upper 30’s. This may have been our last freeze until next fall, but it is still possible until early May. I may go ahead and plant some stuff soon.

LATE WEEK WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EASTER: Temperatures will gradually warm up by the end of the week. Highs will reach the 60s to near 70 tomorrow and Friday with lows back in the 40s and 50s. A weak front may produce a few showers Friday, but widespread rain is not likely.

As of now, Easter weekend is looking mainly dry. The good news…highs will be in the low to mid 70’s and maybe even upper 70’s if we see enough sunshine. Great weather for all those outdoor activities and Easter egg hunts. Expect the mild pattern to continue into next week with another chance of rain by Tuesday.

You can check the specific numbers on the 7 day forecast by clicking here http://www.waaytv.com/weather/7_day/

 

FOLLOW MY WEATHER UPDATES ON THESE SOCIAL MEDIA SITES

FACEBOOK

TWITTER

GOOGLE+

Comments (0)
more »
Tuesday 04/15/2014
Freeze Overnight - Cover Up Tender Plants!

FROM CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SPENCER DENTON

Updated TUESDAY 5:00PM

Forecast lows across the TN Valley by Wednesday morning

Overnight Lows

Freeze warnings in place across much of the southeast overnight

Freeze Warnings Southeast

FREEZE/FROST OVERNIGHT – PROTECT TENDER PLANTS! After seeing some light flurries and snow this morning in portions of the TN Valley, we turn our attention to a brief cold blast by Wednesday morning.  The wind will die down by morning with a clear sky. This will help lows will drop to around 30º on average, but some colder valley’s may see the mid to upper 20’s. Plan to cover up any tender plants and vegetation. Farmer will certainly be keeping an eye on how long it’s below freezing since a hard freeze could damage crops.

LATE WEEK WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EASTER: Temperatures will gradually warm up by the end of the week. Highs will reach the 60s to near 70 by Thursday and Friday with lows back in the 40s and 50s. A weak front may produce a few showers or storms Friday, but widespread rain is not likely.

As of now, Easter weekend is looking mainly dry but the models have been back and forth on possible rain chances. We will adjust the forecast if necessary, so check back later this week, especially if you have outdoor easter egg hunts planned. The good news is highs will be in the low to mid 70’s and maybe even upper 70’s if we see enough sunshine. Expect the mild pattern to continue into next week.

You can check the specific numbers on the 7 day forecast by clicking here http://www.waaytv.com/weather/7_day/

YOU CAN FOLLOW ME ON THESE SOCIAL MEDIA SITES

FACEBOOK

TWITTER

GOOGLE+

INSTAGRAM

Comments (0)
more »
Sunday 04/13/2014
Tennessee Valley Weather Update - 8:30 PM

Capture

The SPC has issued a slight risk for some severe storms tomorrow in the areas highlighted in the yellow. Notice only a small portion of the Tennessee Valley is included at this time, and I don't expect this to change too much heading into tomorrow. 

Capture2

Regional radar imagery shows an active weather evening shaping up for areas to the west. A swath of rain and thunderstorms exists from central Louisiana into eastern Arkansas/Missouri; these are currently not severe and I'm not expecting this activity to become severe overnight tonight. However, a potent line of thunderstorms just ahead of an advancing cold front is severe with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings.

The convective evolution this evening remains a bit murky. Some of the latest high-resolution guidance available shows that potent line of thunderstorms accelerating east-southeast overnight and weakening. This model also shows the cluster of storms in Louisiana strengthening toward daybreak over central Mississippi as it moves eastward slowly. 

Capture3

While I'm not expecting any severe threat to materialize here overnight, no doubt we will see some rain and thunderstorms. Our latest in-house computer model shows some heavier rains spreading into the Shoals and approaching Huntsville by 6 AM tomorrow - just in time for the morning commute. Some of the rain could be heavy at times, and some gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, but again I'm not expecting any storms to reach severe limits. 

Capture4

The evolution of tomorrow's events also is a bit uncertain. It is entirely possible that the morning storms will linger to the south of the valley and act to "cut off" our moisture supply. Should this happen, I would only expect some scattered showers or perhaps a storm in the early evening hours. If some sun is able to peek through the clouds tomorrow afternoon, then we might see a bit more widespread nature to the showers and storms. Should the sun break out some, our instability, or how unstable the atmosphere is, would increase. As this happens, any storm that moves into this area would have the potential to become strong. As the ascent, or rising motion, approaches from the west as the upper-trough moves in, these storms could potentially become marginally severe with gusty winds the primary threat. This would be from around 4 PM until 10 PM. 

THE BOTTOM LINE: The forecast for tomorrow afternoon and evening remains uncertain. It will be a day that you will want to keep up with the latest weather information, but it is entirely possible, and frankly quite likely, we escape this event with no severe weather issues. However, we have to account for the possibility that a few severe storms could develop tomorrow afternoon and evening, so stay tuned. 

Capture5

No, this is not a mistake in our computer model - a freeze is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a shot of fairly cold air moves in from the north. This is after Tuesday's highs only manage the low 50s! Temperatures should bottom out in the 29 to 33 range Tuesday evening, and some spots could end up being at or below freezing for several hours. This could be a potentially damaging freeze, so planters/farmers should make precautions now to protect sensitive vegetation. The good news is that this cold shot of air will not last long; we will warm back into the 60s for the middle of the week. 70s return for next weekend. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Tennessee Valley Weather Update - 4:00 PM

Capture

Today was another gorgeous one out across the Tennessee Valley with most places climbing to the 80 degree mark with an abundance of sunshine. The wind was and will continue to be breezy at times out of the south heading into the evening, as temperatures only slow fall into the upper 60s by Midnight. 

Capture2

We continue to monitor developments off to the west as a storm system continues to organize. There are severe thunderstorm and tornado watches in effect from western Missouri into northern Texas in anticipation that severe storms will continue to develop eastward throughout the afternoon. We also continue to monitor the area of rain and storms in Arkansas and northeast Texas as it continues to slowly move toward the east and northeast. 

Capture3

Some rain and embedded storms will become possible heading into the overnight hours tonight, especially towards the Shoals. This band of rain and storms will work across the Valley through the morning hours before ending around midday. However, additional storms are likely to develop later Monday afternoon into the evening, and I will have a full discussion concerning this potential a little later this evening. 

Capture4

Taking a quick glimpse into the middle of the week, high pressure builds in from the northwest providing tranquil weather and a clearing sky. Wednesday and Thursday will be beautiful early Spring days with highs in the 60s and lots of sunshine. 

I will discuss Monday afternoon's strong storm potential as well as a frost/freeze Tuesday night this afternoon and tonight on WAAY-TV First News at 5 and at 10, so join me then! 

I will also be along a little later this evening with another update here on the blog that will feature everything you need to know for the next couple of days weather-wise!

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Saturday 04/12/2014
TN Valley Weather Update - 8:20 PM - A Look at Next Week

Capture2

As we begin a new work week on Monday, the threat for rain and storms returns, and much like last week, we have the potential at some stronger storms in the forecast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued their standard slight risk of severe weather, and this includes southern portions of our DMA. Also like last week, I'm not thinking at this point we will have to contend with much in the way of severe storms. 

Capture3

Our forecast models continue to suggest that this might be a 1-2 punch type of an event. The first batch of rain and storms will likely arrive Monday morning. Our forecast model paints a wet picture for the northern half of the state by 9 AM Monday with a heavier band of activity from Jackson to Birmingham. This will continue moving eastward through the day at a rather quick pace. 

Capture

One of the parameters we use to determine severe weather potential is Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE); basically, this tells us how potentially energetic the atmosphere would be to surface parcels rising into the atmosphere. Models show that we have no CAPE during the morning hours when that first batch of storms is expected to arrive. However, this is only examining surface instability; there is some CAPE in the mid-levels of the atmosphere during this timeframe. What this means is that some of the storms could become strong with potentially some small hail or gusty winds, but the overall severe weather threat should remain very low. 

Capture4

Heading into Monday evening, this is the second round of storms I mentioned earlier. If, and that is a rather big if, the atmosphere can recover from the morning storms, we should have another round of showers and storms move through during the afternoon and evening hours. Once again, it appears the heaviest activity will remain to the south of the Valley over central and south-central Alabama, according to our in-house computer model. 

Capture5

Our forecast model think that the atmosphere will be able to sufficiently recover by the afternoon. As the core of the upper-level system approaches the area, at least scattered showers and storms should redevelop along the advancing cold front. This activity could be enhanced by a surface wave of low pressure that will be moving northeast along this boundary (see model valid at 8 PM above). Should any of these storms become strong, small hail and gusty winds would again be possible. There remains a slightly higher potential at an isolated severe storm Monday afternoon and evening, but even then this potential appears relatively low at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this situation closely. 

Capture6

After this cold front passes, it will bring in some much colder air Tuesday and especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Check out these lows - low to mid 30s area-wide with some spots getting to or just below the freezing mark. While these potentially freezing temperatures will be short-lived, planters should make preparations now to protect any sensitive vegetation as at least a widespread frost is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures could also visit the upper 30s Monday evening as well as the nose of the colder air plows into the area. 

I'll have much more on your forecast tonight on WAAY-31 First News at 10, so join me then! Otherwise, have a great Saturday evening!

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
TN Valley Weather Update - 345 PM

Capture

On this Saturday afternoon, we are looking fantastic weather wise - lots of sunshine and temperatures running near 80 degrees. Just about the only complaint there is would be about the excessive pollen that continues plaguing the area! If you like today's weather, you will love tomorrow's weather as well - just add one or two more degrees to current temperatures. 

Capture2

Tomorrow will be a wonderful pool day for all ages! Expect a warm afternoon with just fair weather cumulous clouds across the sky through the afternoon with temperatures rising into the low 80s for most locations with a southerly breeze continuing. If you are outside for long periods of time, be sure to apply sunscreen as UV indices will be in the high to very high category. 

Capture3

Enjoy the sunny weather today and tomorrow, because more rain is on the way for the TN Valley as we head into Monday. Our forecast model shows some showers becoming possible as early as 3 AM for the Shoals, but periods of rain and storms are likely to continue throughout your Monday. The rain could be quite heavy at times, and some minor flooding issues could arise once more. 

Be sure to join me on WAAY-TV for First News at 5 this afternoon and at 10 this evening for a complete check of your forecast. I'll have another update here on the blog a little later this evening to discuss Monday's storm system more in depth.

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »

Man charged with two break-ins at Madison business

MADISON, Ala. (WAAY) - Police have arrested a man for breaking into the same store twice in a four-month span.

Road work will soon begin in Huntsville

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WAAY) - "Certain side streets off the Medical District, they are a little bit in rough shape," said Dan Thompson who lives off Vanderbilt Circle. Several roads in his neighborhood could use work.

WAAY 31 FirstNews at 4: Thursday, April 17, 2014

Today at 4....with the weather finally cooperating, it is time for golfers to hit the links, including the ladies!