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Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Monday 07/06/2015
Increasing Heat And Moisture Across The Valley

WEATHER SUMMARY: Now that the stationary front is away from the Valley. We will continue to watch a large area of high pressure moving into the Valley. Temperatures will continue to climb along with the moisture content. This means during the afternoons it will feel like the upper 90s if not 100 at times. We probably won't be under a heat advisory this week but you should still take it easy outside!

Our rain chances will be very small if not zero. We could see a few pop up showers and storms.

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More sunshine, less rain as we start off the workweek!

What a soggy weekend we saw for the Fourth of July! Over 4.5 inches of rain fell at the Muscle Shoals Airport and close to 3.5 inches of rain for the Huntsville International Airport. Huntsville is finally above average in precipitation for the year while Muscle Shoals is just a quarter of an inch short. Overall, we've caught up with the rain we needed, and now we can finally enjoy the outdoors this week!

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Higher pressure over the Gulf will help bring more sunshine into the forecast this week. Temperatures will climb back into the mid 90's because of this, along with very muggy conditions seeping back into the Valley. This could make the heat index feel like it's into the upper 90's to possibly 100 degrees outside! Yikes, stay hydrated and don't forget the sunscreen! Only a few stray showers will provide relief from the heat that are looking to favor Northeast Alabama this week.

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Sunday 07/05/2015
Pattern Change: Not too wet, not too hot

DRIER WEATHER COMING:  We have seen some incredibly wet weather the past couple of weeks.  As of July 5th, we are close to 3 inches of rain in Huntsville and Muscle Shoals.  Through the upcoming work week, we'll have a slightly drier pattern.  We will still have a chance of rain for most of the next 7 days, but those chances are much lower and will come from afternoon showers and storms.

TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE:  Temps will start climb, but not too far.  Through the next 7 days, our highs will be in the lower 90's which is the average for this time of year.  We can expect more sunshine as well, and only see cloud cover with near by showers or storms.  Unlike the last warm up we had in June, this warm up will come with much muggier conditions.  Expect heat indices in the upper 90's and even 100's.  

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Saturday 07/04/2015
Drier pattern taking shape

4TH OF JULY:  Through the overnight, we will see a few showers and storms will move through the valley and could put a damper on your plans to watch firework shows.  Temps will be muggy in the early evening, sitting in the mid 70's.  We remain under a flash flood watch until Sunday at 7 A.M.

WARNINGS

SUNDAY AND MONDAY:  Rain chances hold steady through the first of the work week.  The best chances will be early Sunday into the afternoon hours.  Temps will remain in the mid 80's for our highs both days.  We'll have mostly cloudy skies with brief intermissions of sunshine.  

Tomorrow Planner

DRYING OUT NEXT WEEK:  Starting Tuesday, our rain chances begin to drop.  If we see rain, it will be isolated in nature and very brief.  During this stretch, temps will begin to climb into the upper 80's and eventually the lower 90's by next weekend.  

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Friday 07/03/2015
Mother Nature May Keep Us Dry For Parts Of The 4th

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: More rain is expected to move through the Valley. Not like we need anymore since just with today's rain we have seen a good swath of 3-5" of rain so far for Colbert and Franklin Counties in AL. 3

This is why we are also under a flash flood watch which is in effect through Saturday evening. We have seen so much rain that any added rain will make it very easy for localized flooding to happen. If your doing anything tonight or Saturday just keep that in mind if your in any flood prone areas.

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4TH OF JULY: The rain chances will be highest in the morning with chances decreasing during the afternoon. Notice how they are decreasing and not zero. While most rain will be away from the Valley at this point we could see some isolated showers and maybe a storm or two at that point. So wherever you are going to enjoy the 4th keep an umbrella and plan in the back of your mind in case it does rain. 

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Have a happy and safe 4th everyone!

Be sure to also follow me on social media!

SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHIC

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Thursday 07/02/2015
UPDATED: Scattered Storms Tonight/Friday Morning

STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: Storms will continue to move into the Valley early Friday morning. (Past midnight). These storms will be non-severe for the most part but an isolated storm may become severe. Wind would again be the main threat. But the majority of these storms will be good rain producers. 

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Be sure to follow me on social media for the latest updates!

SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHIC

FRIDAY: Another round of storms are expected during the afternoon again. As of right now those storms would not be severe.

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4TH OF JULY: The best chances for rain will be in the morning through about late afternoon. The good news is that most events will be dry for the fireworks! Just bring an umbrella in case there is a shower in your vicinity.  1

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Unsettled weather pattern persists for Fourth of July

Unsettled weather continues in the forecast for the next seven days, as waves of energy from the North and West will continue to bring in showers and storms. 

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On Thursday, we'll have better chance of showers and storms firing up North of the Tennessee River. Between .25 to .50 of an inch of rain is likely to accumulate. Gusty winds in excess of 40 mph or greater is likely. 

Capture

Heading into the Fourth of July weekend, no changes to the forecast as scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist. The only glimmer of hope we see is that showers look to tapper off in time for the fireworks display at 9 P.M. on Saturday night.

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Wednesday 07/01/2015
More Storms On The Way This Week

SEVERE STORM WATCH: As the line of showers and storms move across the Valley more counties will be taken out of the watch. It is set to expire at 6 p.m. but the way storms are going we may see it be completely taken down before that.

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THURSDAY: Another impulse will bring more showers and storms to the Valley. Timing is not 100% but we will see a cluster of storms move through either during the morning or afternoon. Models did a perfect job Wednesday but with any complex forecasts may need to be tweaked.

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4TH OF JULY: We will see some very early morning showers and storms but during the afternoon and evening we should be mainly dry. Only an isolated shower or storm would be possible during the evening events.

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Scattered storms expected Wednesday night

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect until 6 P.M. for all of the Tennessee Valley except for Franklin, Cullman, and Colbert counties has expired.

The National Weather Service said Wednesday afternoon that some storms throughout the night could be strong with gusty winds, and there is also the possibility of heavy rainfall with some localized flooding.

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Silver lining for rainy Fourth Of July week

Rain on the Fourth of July? Say it isn't so! Well, over the past four years, the Fourth of July has actually been very inconsistent in terms of what weather is likely to occur. From over 4 inches of rainfall in 2013 to 102 degrees for a high temperature back in 2012, anything goes.

So it only makes sense we have an unsettled weather pattern of rain chances in the forecast to go along with the 2015 Fourth of July year, right? Most of you reading this are thinking, no I want nice, sunny comfortable weather! Not this year, but let's think about this incoming rain as a good thing, because our farmers and those who use our streams, creeks, and lakes really need this rain!

In reality, we do need the rain to get back on track for normal precipitation for this time of year. Are we in a drought? Not quite, as the U.S. Drought Monitor only has us in an Abnormally Dry category on their map, the lowest risk issued usually meaning the area is going into a drought. But if we don't start seeing the rain soon, things could get worse. We certainly don't need a repeat of the 2011-2012 years where Huntsville, Decatur, and Muscle Shoals where at point in a deficit of 15.5 inches of rain!

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So when did our deficit begin? The months of March and April 2015 were very rainy as we started off our spring season well above the normal precipitation we usually see for this time of year.

According to the climate records kept by the National Weather Service of Huntsville, in the month of April:

  • Huntsville received 6.94 inches. That's a surplus of 2.62 inches compared to normal records for the month of June
  • Muscle Shoals received 5.03 inches, which is a surplus of +.68 pf an inch
  • By the end of April, for the year Huntsville had a surplus of .86 of an inch and Muscle Shoals had a surplus of +.36 of an inch

The month of May brought in a rainier forecast for Huntsville who continued to stay on track with above average precipitation totals for the year with a surplus of 1.01 inches. But Muscle Shoals failed to see nearly half as much rain as Huntsville did, and a deficit of .41 of an inch was reported at the Northwest Alabama Regional Airport.

Then drier weather took over for the month of June. According to climate records by the National Weather Service of Huntsville, AL, looking back at the month of June, 2015, we only picked up on 2.38 inches of rain for Huntsville. In comparison:

  • The normal precipitation we see for June is 4.29 inches of rain
  • That's a deficit of 1.91 inches of rain
  • Last year, 2014, we received 7.13 inches of rain
  • Since the beginning of the year deficit now reaches -.90 of an inch

For Muscle Shoals, the recorded amount of rain picked up for June 2015 was 2.36 inches. In comparison:

  • The normal precipitation we see for June is 4.76 inches of rain
  • That's a big deficit of 2.40 inches
  • Last year, June 2014, we have 7.47 inches
  • Since the beginning of the year deficit now reaches -2.01 inchesCapture4

Water levels recorded by the USGS even indicate that there's low water supply in Lawrence county from their Real Time Streamflow. The Big Nance Creek in particular is well below average in discharge at 13%. Farmers particularly in Northwest Alabama have been hurting for water. Even residents in western Lauderdale county has been told to reserve water.

So, is the rain needed? Yes, it is.

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From Wednesday into Friday, a disturbance from the Central Plains looks to bring in anywhere from 1-2 inches of rain by Friday morning. Rain showers will even persist into this weekend, though they'll be hit or miss showers.

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Unclaimed Baggage co-founder dies

Mollie Sue Owens, the co-founder of the Unclaimed Baggage Center store in Scottsboro passed away on July 4th. 

Arrest made in alleged indecent exposure at Decatur Sonic

A Cullman man has been charged with two counts of indecent exposure following incidents at an area Sonic.

Jackson County man arrested after allegedly shooting brother

A 4th o f July shooting in Jackson County left one man in the Highlands Hospital emergency room.