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Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Monday 11/24/2014
Temperatures Dropping Until Thanksgiving

MONDAY: A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GILES, LAWRENCE, AND WAYNE COUNTY TN, UNTIL 6 P.M. TONIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH.A second cold front will pass through the Tennessee Valley early this morning, causing us to deal with gusty winds, a few passing clouds, and possibly a stray shower in Southern Tennessee to start our day. By this afternoon, winds will move in from the Northwest, sending in a cooler air flow to knock temperatures from the mid 60's this morning down to the mid to upper 50's.03212ABE_069A5A09_cam2

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Higher pressure will move in from the Northwest, sending in cooler, but drier air in for the midweek's forecast. Temperatures will fall into the mid 50's to upper 40's with plenty of sunshine. By Wednesday night, a weak cold front will pass through the area, and with just a bit of moisture, we could pick up on a few flurries in Southern Tennessee a temperatures drop to the freezing mark.WarningLegend

THANKSGIVING & BLACK FRIDAY: After the weak cold front passes Thursday morning, expect plenty of sunshine but cooler conditions. Highs will reach into the mid 40's. On Friday, winds will move back in from the South, allowing Friday morning for Black Friday shopping to be into the mid to upper 30'sand pushing into the mid 50's for the afternoon.

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NORTHEAST: A nor'easter will sweep up the eastern seaboard, looking to dump a rain/snow mix into Philadelphia and New York City Wednesday Night into Thursday morning, which could cause delays in airport travel. Boston, Hartford, and Providence could pick up on 4 to 8 inches of snow as well.

MIDWEST: For the Chicago Metro area, a weak disturbance will move through the windy city, looking to bring in blustery winds and possibly lake effect snow.

REST OF SOUTHEAST: The Southeast should stay fairly dry as higher pressure will build in after a weak cold front that will move through the area Wednesday night. Travel forecast looks good for the roads and the sky.

 

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Sunday 11/23/2014
More problems in Buffalo, possible messy travel time before the Thanksgiving

We’ve all heard now about the huge lake effect snowfall event that took place in buffalo last week. The National Weather Service has been watching closely with concerns of flooding due to warming temperatures, snow melt, and rain fall. However, a more unpredictable problem has reared its ugly head. ICE JAM!

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An Ice jam is when ice on a river “dams up” a river. They usually occur in the spring time, but can also occur in early winter months do to big cold spells like the one that just hit Buffalo. As chunks of ice float down river, they can become stuck and more ice piling up on top of it as ice flows down the river. The Cazenovia Creek in southern Buffalo was expected to crest around 10.8ft (minor flood stage) Monday evening; however, an ice jam has occurred and in just a few hours time gone from less than 5 ft, to 10.9 ft. As a result, the NWS has issued flood warnings for surrounding areas.

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Highs Monday for Buffalo are expected to be in the upper 50’s, so snow will continue to melt through the day on Monday. After that, the forecast calls for a chance of even more snow showers all the way through next Sunday.

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More locally, we don’t have to worry about snow or ice jams anytime soon. The weather will remain pleasant for much of the week. A system is expected to develop off towards our south and east that could cause some travel troubles for the east coast. Models indicate 10+ inches could fall across the mid Atlantic states all the way up into New England by Thanksgiving Day.

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Friday 11/21/2014
Football Forecast, Rain Chances & A Look At Thanksgiving

TONIGHT: Despite some high clouds pushing through it will be a very nice evening. Friday night football looks like it will be great weather. Kickoff temperatures will be in the low 50s.

SATURDAY: This will still be a very nice day even with the limited sunshine at times. Highs will be in the mid 60s. There still could be some showers south of Huntsville due to the warm front approaching the Valley. College games look okay but don't be surprised if you see a few light sprinkles for the Auburn game. Alabama is playing early enough so that they will be dry.

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SUNDAY: We have been tracking this system for a few days now. Nothing really has changed much except some local rain amounts. Generally we should see 0.5" to 1.0" of rain. Locally some locations could see 2"+ but that is if a few storms end up forming. The severe threat will be towards the Gulf but don't count out strong winds at times (40-50 mph).  There will be a lot of wind energy so it will look like the sky is hauling during the afternoon. Because of a strong cap in place there is very limited instability. The timing of the system will be key but I don't expect much out of this round.

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THANKSGIVING: This is where things could get interesting...I say that because long range models are hinting at the possibility of at least some snow showers for southern Tennessee and parts of north Alabama. This would be a system clipping the Valley again. The timing would be Wednesday night through midday Thursday. It wouldn't be wise to put that into the forecast right now but it is worth noting.

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Rain, Gusty Winds On The Way For Sunday

FRIDAY: We'll see a few passing clouds across the Tennessee Valley this morning with a slight chance of light rain showers in Northwest Alabama. Otherwise temperatures will flirt with the 60 degree mark thanks to southerly winds advancing ahead of our next storm system. These southerly winds will keep Friday Night Football's forecast across the Tennessee Valley mild with kickoff temperatures into the mid to lower 50's and game ending temperatures into the upper 40's.

SATURDAY: We'll see increasing clouds and a few light showers building West of I-65 throughout the day. Otherwise temperatures will climb into the mid 60's with breezy conditions.

SUNDAY: Our storm system will finally get a kick and push through the Tennessee Valley all day Sunday. Heavy rainfall and winds potentially gusting up to 50 to 60 mph are expected. Since warmer air will be moving through all levels of the atmosphere, this actually hinders the potential for thunderstorm develop. We may hear a few rumbles of thunder, but the severe threat will be on the lower side. However, if you are heading South of Birmingham or into the New Orleans/Jackson, MS area, be aware, they have a better potential of picking up on severe thunderstorms a possible a spin up.

NEXT WEEK: This pesky storm system will move up the Eastern seaboard allowing a flow of northwesterly winds to scurry across the Valley for the workweek next week, dipping temperatures down into the mid 50's to upper 40's. We'll stay fairly dry with a good dose of sunshine, but we won't be as warm as what we have been seeing.

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Thursday 11/20/2014
Warmer Weather But Rain This Sunday

FRIDAY: The weather looks great with highs close to 60. Skies will be partly cloudy at times with some high clouds. Friday night football looks very good weather wise.

SATURDAY: The majority of the day will be dry. The only areas that could see any stray showers south of Huntsville. The rain will be move Saturday night.

SUNDAY: The rain will be heavy at times but most of it should be out late in the afternoon. The question has been will we see any severe weather? The odds for that are incredibly low. The main reason why is that there will be a strong cap in place that will inhibit storms from forming in the first place. The instability will be very low but there will be a lot of wind energy. That is why there is a good chance to see gusty winds. As far as damaging winds, that would be more of an isolated case.

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Brief Cool Down Before Warmth & Storms Move In

EARTHQUAKE THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL ALABAMA: At 4:25 A.M. this morning a 3.8 earthquake was record 10 miles Northwest of Eutaw, Alabama. Reports of shakes were felt as far as Alabaster and Tuscaloosa. No aftershock has been reported.

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SLIGHT COOL DOWN TONIGHT: A very weak cold front will scurry across the Tennessee Valley late this afternoon, continuing a flow of southerly winds ahead of it that will allow temperatures to boost up into the mid 50's.  As this cold front passes, however, winds will pull back in from the North, causing a slightly cool overnight forecast than what we saw this morning. Lows will plummet into the mid to lower 30's with a few passing clouds. This cool down will be brief as southerly winds will move back into the Tennessee Valley come Friday as we welcome in our next storm system from the South over Texas and Arkansas.

WARM UP WEEKEND:  Our next storm system will be a slow mover, continuing to pump in winds from the South which will allow our temperatures to rise up into the mid to upper 50's for Friday with a few passing clouds. We should mirror what we see Friday for Saturday forecast with temperatures increasing to the mid 60's before rain and thunderstorms arrive Sunday.

STORMY SUNDAY: The warm front of this storm system is looking to bring in gusty winds, heavy downpours and a couple rumbles of thunder to the Tennessee Valley starting Sunday morning and lasting into the afternoon hours. I don't expect anything to turn severe, but due to this strong flow of warm, moist air, if you are travelling South of Birmingham that's where we could see things turning severe. 

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Wednesday 11/19/2014
Warm Air Remains; Rain Chances Sunday

RECORDS: We had two record lows today. Huntsville tied the previous record and Scottsboro crushed their previous record

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WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: The weather will be quite pleasant the next few days with increasing temperature each day. Friday night football looks much warmer than last Friday. The high pressure that is over the southeast will continue to pull in more warm air and moisture. The low that forms over Texas will just help amplify that Saturday evening/Sunday.

SUNDAY: The low will stay NW of the Valley. This will create a pretty good cap that will keep the chances way down for severe weather. Heavy rain will be the biggest threat on Sunday. Rain totals could be anywhere from .25" to 1.5". 12

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Finally A Warm Up Is Here!

WARMING UP END OF WORKWEEK!: Higher pressure will continue to reign supreme in our forecast, which suppresses the air and allows the sun to shine! Just a few passing clouds will move in due to an upper level disturbance over Illinois and Indiana, which could bring snow to places like South Bend and Gary Indiana today. We won't have to worry about any type of cold weather as winds will start to move from the South which will help aid a temperatures increase. Temperatures will soar into the upper 40's on Wednesday to mid 50's by Friday! Overnight lows will gradually warm up as well pushing above the freezing mark!

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WEEKEND RAIN & WARMTH: As higher pressure moves East over the Carolina coast, our next storm system will begin to approach the Tennessee Valley, fueling in southerly air to push us into the mid to upper 60's! We may see a few spotty showers, especially West of I-65 on Friday and Saturday with plenty of time to get outside and enjoy the warmer weather! Before the warm front of this system will move a heavier band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday Morning, then leave us with gradual clearing during the afternoon! Relief is in sight, and we'll finally be back to average with overall highs and lows temperatures!
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Tuesday 11/18/2014
Arctic Air Leaves But Warm Rain Takes Its Place

MORNING LOWS: It did not as cold as expected but it was certainly a bitter cold morning nonetheless. There was however one new record low. 

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TONIGHT: Conditions are right for another very cold night. Most lows will be in the low 20s but a few teens will also be likely. Will we see more record lows tonight...probably not but not without a good try.

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WEEKEND: Things will get nice and warm again even with a few areas hitting 70. We will see a large push of warm air and moisture. This will set the stage for heavy rain and storms. As far as exact placement of moisture the models are keeping the heaviest rain Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Amounts could easily go 1.5-2.5 for areas south of the Tennessee River.

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Last Day Of Cold Conditions!

TUESDAY: Northwesterly winds will continue drive in a blast of cold, arctic air for today. Temperatures will only reach into the lower 30's, which could break out Record Low High temperature of 36 degrees set back in 2000! Overnight lows will plummet to the lower 20's before we start to see a warm up!

WARMING UP!: It's been a long time coming, but southerly winds will finally start to move back into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday thanks to an incoming storm system from the West. We'll see temperatures climb into the upper 40's by Wednesday to the upper 60's by Sunday morning. The brunt of the rain showers will come in Sunday Morning as the warm front of this system will move into the Tennessee Valley. Behind it, southerly winds with mostly cloudy skies will be in the forecast for Sunday afternoon, allowing you to get outside to enjoy the upper 60 degree temperatures! Finally relief is here from the frigid weather!

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