Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Wednesday 10/22/2014
Patchy Frost Possible Tonight

FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT: We've been in the 40s the last few nights for overnight lows. The only thing we have seen out of that is some valley fog develop. Thursday morning we may be able to see some frost. We will be under a Frost Advisory from 4 a.m. until 9 a.m. Thursday. Unprotected outdoor plants could be killed if left unprotected.

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WARMING TREND: The next few days you will see a vast difference during the afternoons. We will see a 10 degree swing in high temperatures between Thursday and Saturday. Some spots this weekend will most likely hit 80.

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Tuesday 10/21/2014
Storm Prediction Center Changes

CURRENT TREND: A dominating area of high pressure has been around and will continue to be around through the beginning of next week. The only thing that will change will be our temperatures as they will be warmer starting this weekend. There is still no real rain chances in sight. The only thing that may materialize will be some showers Tuesday night into Wednesday of next week.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER CHANGES: Starting Wednesday October 22 there will be some changes to the way the Storm Prediction Center issues their convective outlooks. What used to be four categories will now be five. Here is a look at the current and proposed categories.

Current:

1. See Text

2. Slight (SLGT)

3. Moderate (MDT)

4. High (HIGH)

Proposed:

1. Marginal (MRGL) - replaces the current SEE TEXT and now is described with Categorical line on the SPC Outlook.

2. Slight (SLGT)

3. Enhanced (ENH) - will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk

4. Moderate (MDT)

5. High (HIGH)

This is how it would have looked for the April 27, 2011 Day 1 Outlook:

Current:

spc1

Proposed:

spc2SPCchanges

On that day nothing would have changed for our viewing area. We still would have had a moderate and high risk.

But why is SPC changing what has been around for 35 years? Change for the sake of change? The answer is no. They are changing the way they are issuing these outlooks to give the public a better idea of what to expect for severe weather probabilities. They are not doing an entire overhaul of the system but they are adjusting one of the outlooks and adding another.

New Day 1 Outlook Probability:

day1prob2cat_sm

The bigger question has been, "Is this change even worth it?". I think it's too early to tell but I will applaud the SPC for trying to improve the current system. The SPC has been researching information and ideas from a multitude of places for a while to get where they are now.

For more information about this change you can go to the link here.

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Twitter: @ChrisWAAY31

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Monday 10/20/2014
The Redundant Forecast

TONIGHT: A weak cold front will pass but the cloud cover that has moved in this afternoon will last tonight. If areas become fairly clear patchy fog will be possible by morning.

GENERAL TREND: There will be an abundant amount of high pressure this week. Not only at the surface but in the atmosphere aloft. The only minor disturbance that comes through will be Wednesday and Thursday. Since there won't be much moisture we will only see a few added clouds during those afternoons. Temperatures will sway on the "average" side this week. The average high for Huntsville for the next five days will be 73/72 degrees.  Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

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Thursday 10/16/2014
Sunshine And More Sunshine!

THIS EVENING: The cloud cover is just about out of here and we are in store for a pleasant evening. Temperatures will cool rapidly once the sun sets so if you have any outdoor plans this evening to just grab a sweatshirt or light jacket just in case. SCREENCAP

CRUISE CONTROL FORECAST: It's been a while but we will be sunny, cool and comfortable the next several days. The main reason will be a large ridge in the Jet Stream starting this weekend and should last through the end of next week. That will apply a downward force in the atmosphere which makes it tough for clouds, rain or really much to form.

SCREENCAP3

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Wednesday 10/15/2014
Clouds For One More Day Then Sunshine!

UPPER LEVEL LOW: We just have another 24-30 hours left to deal with this upper level low. This will cause about half of the Valley to see mostly sunny skies while the other half stays mostly cloudy. Huntsville will be in the middle so we will start off Thursday with mostly cloudy/overcast and by the mid to late afternoon partly sunny.

SCREENCAP

WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday will be cooler than normal. A reinforcing cold front will pass through Saturday. This will be our 850mb temps from 11/13 degrees Celsius to 3/4 degrees Celsius in the afternoon. So the highs on Saturday will be in the low 70s. Sunday will stay cool and we probably won't hit 70. 

SCREENCAP2

LONG TERM: This will be a relaxing week for many as high pressure at the surface moves in along with riding aloft. This will keep the sunshine around the better half of a week with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Keep those blankets close!

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SOCIAL MEDIA:

Twitter: @ChrisWAAY31

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Tuesday 10/14/2014
From Cloudy To Beautiful

UPPER LEVEL LOW: This will be the main cause of our weather the next two days. It will keep the cloud cover almost locked into the Tennessee Valley and give us a small chance for a few showers. The best chances for showers will be for southern Tennessee and extreme northern Alabama.

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NICE STREAK OF WEATHER: Once the upper level low leaves we will have a reinforcing cold front push through. This will move out any and all cloud cover for a few days and keep our high and low temperatures around average.

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Monday 10/13/2014
Strong To Severe Storms Tonight

LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Even with the line to our west we could see some storms and supercells push from south/southwest to north/northeast late this afternoon and early evening.

SCREENCAP3

TONIGHT:   A line of very strong and severe storms has been moving across the country the last 36 hours. There have been many reports of damaging winds (Winds 60+ mph). That will also be our main threat tonight. There is a decent tornado threat but it will be greatest the closer to live to Mississippi. (Tornado Outlook is a probability %)

SCREENCAP5 SCREENCAP2

TIMING: This line has been very difficult to time out due to a number of reasons. As of 2 p.m. this is the best estimate for the squall line to go through these areas. The line should be reaching the MS/AL state line around 8-9 p.m. Athens, Decatur and Huntsville around midnight to 2 a.m. Scottsboro and Fort Payne 4-6 a.m..

SCREENCAPSCREENCAP4

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Friday 10/10/2014
Some Rain This Weekend But Severe Storms Likely Monday Night

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Daily rain chances will be the main theme through the weekend. Different fronts and disturbances will give us those chances. Best chances will be Friday night and Saturday.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Models have been doing better on the timing with the cold front. GFS, EURO and now the NAM all time the rain and storms to start Monday evening. The difference is how long will the event last. The Euro has the event lasting until Tuesday evening which would make for a long lived event. The GFS has been consistent with pushing out the rain and storms Tuesday morning. It should be noted that this event has not been in the medium forecast model range yet. So it will be interesting to see how the NAM and WRF handle it.

 SCREENCAP

**These images are all for the time of 7 p.m. Monday using the GFS model**

  model1 model2 model3 model4

The trend has not changed at all the last 48 hours. Medium range models are able to finally reach the beginning of this event. There is great consistency for the beginning of the event. 

This still looks like it will be a line of strong and severe storms. We have sufficient moisture, very strong low level winds, decent wind shear and a strong mid-level shortwave. This will be something we will continue to watch out for over the next couple of days.

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Thursday 10/09/2014
Warming, Rain Chances & Severe Weather Possibilities

THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Daily rain chances will be the main theme through the weekend. Different fronts and disturbances will give us those chances. Best chances will be Friday night and Saturday.

SCREENCAP

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Models have been doing better on the timing with the cold front. GFS and Euro both time the rain and storms to start Monday evening. The difference is how long will the event last. The Euro has the event lasting until Tuesday evening which would make for a long lived event. The GFS has been consistent with pushing out the rain and storms Tuesday morning. It should be noted that this event has not been in the medium forecast model range yet. So it will be interesting to see how the NAM and WRF handle it.

 SCREENCAP2

**These images are all for the time of 7 p.m. Monday using the GFS model**

  model1 model2 model3 model4

This looks like a decent set up for severe weather for the Tennessee Valley. We have sufficient moisture, strong low level winds, strong wind shear and a strong mid-level shortwave. This will be something we will watch out for over the coming days.

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Wednesday 10/08/2014
Chances For Rain Then A Strong Cold Front

THIS EVENING: A surface boundary is located just south of the Tennessee River. This has created a few showers and storms but some of them may become severe. Damaging winds and large hail would be the only threats. Once we get past 10 p.m. our storm chances will diminish.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Daily rain chances will be the main theme through the weekend. Different fronts and disturbances will give us those chances. Best chances will be Friday late afternoon/evening and then again on Sunday.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: I'm expecting a cold front to move through during this time frame. Models are still hesitant on the timing but the strength is agreed upon.

**These images are all for the time of 1 a.m. Tuesday morning using the GFS model**

SCREENCAP4 SCREENCAP3 SCREENCAP2 SCREENCAP

This looks like a decent set up for severe weather for the Tennessee Valley. We have sufficient moisture, strong low level winds, strong wind shear and a strong mid-level shortwave. This will be something we will watch out for over the coming days.

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Suspect at large after shooting in Arab

ARAB, Ala. (WAAY) - According to the Arab Police Chief, a shooting early Wednesday morning left one person injured, and the suspect on the run. 

VIDEO: Becky Elders on how her uncle's remains were found 60 years after he went missing

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WAAY) - A Korean War veteran who was lost in an Alaska plane crash in 1952 will be brought back to Alabama this week.

Drugs found in car after driver doesn't use turn signal

DECATUR, Ala. (WAAY) - On Tuesday, members of the Decatur Police Department's Anit-Crime Unity were patrolling near Clarkview St. and Beltline Road SW.