Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Tuesday 07/22/2014
Humidity on the Rise, A Few Sticky Days Before Relief

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You'll be wearing the air today as lower pressure sitting to the South of the Tennessee Valley will be funneling in warm, humid air from the Gulf, making it a very unbearable day today.

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Dewpoints will climb into the lower 70's with temperature creeping up into the upper 80's to lower 90's. Look for a chance of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon time with a mix of sun and clouds.

By Wednesday we'll catch a brief break in the stormy weather pattern as higher pressure will slide in for the morning and early afternoon hours. Look for a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures soaring into the lower 90's.

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Our weather pattern start to change Wednesday night and into Thursday, as a cold front from the North will bring in a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. With mostly cloudy skies and winds driving in from the North, temperatures look to stay into the mid 80's with muggy conditions for Thursday.

Drier air will move through the Tennessee Valley Friday into Saturday, allowing ample amounts of sunshine and temperatures to soar into the lower 90's. However, with drier air in place, dewpoints will only reach into the mid 60's, making it feel more comfortable outside.

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Monday 07/21/2014
More Rain, Relief comes Wednesday

A stalling weather pattern will lead to more rain showers and thunderstorms for the Tennessee Valley for Monday and Tuesday. 

CaptureLower pressure off to the south of The Tennessee Valley is causing our weather to come from the Southeast today. Rare, but it's all due in part to the counterclockwise spin of lower pressure that'll drive in moisture from the Gulf. Primarily, Northeast Alabama will be getting the brunt of the precipitation for Monday and Tuesday. Be careful of slick roads and low visibility due to the hilly terrain of Northeast Alabama. 

Throughout the day, showers will push to the Northwest, which will allow Madison and Limestone county pick up on isolated showers throughout the day, with the Shoals and Northwest Alabama looking to receive a stray thunderstorm or two. Due to more sunshine and a lesser chance of rain, the Shoals will be the warm spot on our map for Monday and Tuesday, looking to push into the lower 90's. Humidity levels will be on the rise, making it feel very uncomfortable outside.

CaptureBy Wednesday, lower pressure will get a kick off to the East of Alabama, allowing higher pressure to move in and send in some drier weather. Look for a mix of sun and clouds Wednesday with temperatures soaring into the lower 90's for all the of the Tennessee Valley thanks to more sunshine in the forecast.

CaptureBy Wednesday night into Thursday, a cold front will push through the region, ending our nice day of sunny weather and returning the rain back in the forecast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the forecast with breezy conditions. Highs will only reach into the mid 80's thanks to cloud cover and it'll be a muggy one out there as dewpoints look to stay into the upper 60's to lower 70's. 

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Monday 07/07/2014
Stormy Weather This Week For Tennessee Valley

CaptureHot, humid, and showers, oh my! Yes folks, welcome back to summer after a cool and comfortable 4th of July weekend. Southerly winds tap back in for the Tennessee Valley, causing temperatures to soar into the lower 90's for today's highs, causing instability and some pop up thunderstorms to develop over Northwest Alabama this afternoon.

Not much is changing for Tuesday's forecast, as we'll see more pop up thunderstorms forming over the Tennessee Valley. Brief downpours, vivid lightning and gusty winds is possible with these storms. Temperatures will warm up to the mid 90's and with dewpoints forecasted to be in the lower 70's, heat indices could climb into the triple digits. 

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By Wednesday a cold front is expected to plow through the Tennessee Valley until Thursday, bringing widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will drop into the mid to lower 80's thanks to cloud cover and cooler air from the downdrafts of these thunderstorms, but the humidity levels will remain high, making it a very muggy and rainy Wednesday forecast. Avoid making plans outdoors for Wednesday and Thursday.

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Friday 07/04/2014
Nice Holiday Weekend Across The Tennessee Valley

Mother Nature has been bringing relief from the hot and humid weather just in time for the Fourth of July! Higher pressure from the North is bringing in drier and cooler air, keeping temperatures anywhere between 5 to 10 degrees below average and dewpoints down into the upper 50's, making it a pleasant holiday.

CaptureIf you're venturing out to see the fireworks display across the Tennessee Valley for tonight, bringing a sweater may be a good idea as clear skies and light winds will let the heat during the day escape into the upper atmosphere, dropping our temperatures significantly from the mid 80's at 5 p.m. to the upper 60's by the time the fireworks show ends.

Heading into Saturday, we're looking to hit the replay button on our forecast. Nothing but sunshine and temperatures into the upper 80's. Make sure to slap on some sunscreen before heading to the pool or even if you're going to play golf. UV indices will be very high, meaning extreme risk of harm from unprotected sun exposure.

By Sunday, higher pressure will move over eastward, causing our winds to tap back in from the South. Temperatures will climb closer to 90 degrees, along with sticky conditions returning back into the forecast. With the southerly flow of air strengthening in our forecast for the start of the workweek, we'll begin to increase the chances of pop up thunderstorms in the forecast.

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Tuesday 07/01/2014
Tropical Storm Arthur Forms - Why It Could Mean Less Humidity for the TN Valley

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The National Hurricane Center has just classified Tropical Depression One as a Tropical Storm - its name is Arthur. It is located 95 miles southeast of Cape Canveral, Florida and is nearly stationary or moving very slowly to the northwest at 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph right now, but it is expected to strengthen steadily over the next several days, likely reaching hurricane status by sometime Thursday. 

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Here's the forecast path for TS Arthur. It will eventually pick up forward speed and move north-northwest, paralleling the eastern Florida coastline. It will eventually turn to the northeast as a frontal zone approaches from the west and helps steer this system away from most of the U.S. mainland. It could skirt the coastlines of North Carolina and South Carolina, but a major U.S. impact doesn't appear likely at this point. However, if you have travel plans towards the Mid-Atlantic/New England areas, watch this system closely. 

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This tropical system is actually going to have a bit of an impact on our weather indirectly. As it moves east of our area, counter-clockwise flow combined with anti-cyclonic flow associated with approaching high pressure will result in a nice, dry northeasterly wind here in the Valley. This will translate to some lower humidity values across the area Thursday afternoon into your 4th of July. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s Thursday night and maybe Friday night as well. Daytime highs will still be in the 80s, but it should feel a little less humid out there, so enjoy the fireworks!

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Meteorologist

iwilliams@waaytv.com

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Sunday 06/29/2014
Mid 90s by Mid-Week, then Dry 4th of July Forecast for TN Valley

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Our weather pattern is changing to favor a hotter and drier solution at least for a couple of days. The upper air pattern shown above shows an elongated ridge of high pressure located around 18,000 feet off the ground (~500mb). Meanwhile, a large upper-level low pressure system will be lifting into the southern Canadian Provinces out of the northern Plains. The ridge of high pressure over the southern states will help suppress vertical motion in the atmosphere, and thus our rain chances have been taken out of the forecast starting on Tuesday. Highs will reach the mid 90s both Tuesday and on Wednesday as a result of this high pressure ridging. 

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By Thursday, you can definitely notice a change in the weather pattern. Troughing/lowering of mid-level heights will overspread the area late Wednesday into Thursday. As a result, a round of scattered thunderstorms will be possible at just about any time on Thursday and some of these could become strong thanks to the local increase in mid-level winds that would support some multi-cell storm organization. 

Behind this feature, it appears some drier air could spill down into parts of the TN Valley for the 4th of July weekend thanks to what might be Arthur skirting up the eastern Atlantic seaboard. Confidence isn't all that high in this scenario, but it does certainly appear possible beginning Friday we could see some lower humidity and highs drop back into the mid 80s...stay tuned!

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Meteorologist

iwilliams@waaytv.com

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Saturday 06/28/2014
Turning Hotter Next Week - Also a Dry 4th of July?

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We're watching an area of disturbed weather off the South Carolina coast over the far western Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center pegs this to have a 40% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours, and a 60% chance of developing within 5 days. The ridge of high pressure over parts of the Southeast will try and steer this system towards the Florida Peninsula, keeping us here in the TN Valley clear of any impacts this system may have. 

This ridge of high pressure will likely expand heading into next week, which will mean decreasing rain chances and increasing temperatures. Highs should reach the mid 90s by Tuesday with little to no chance of rain. Meanwhile, given weak steering currents, the aforementioned tropical system should meander around just off the eastern Florida coastline. 

A frontal boundary/associated shortwave trough should swing through the area Thursday and increase rain chances once again to around 30-40%. There could be a period of slightly drier and "cooler" air behind this front, providing it does actually make it all the way through the area. If this happens, highs may drop back a couple degrees into the upper 80s, but it will "feel" a little bit better out there, and the 4th of July forecast is looking dry right now! That shortwave trough should pick up the meandering tropical system and move out into the western Atlantic away from the United States. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Meteorologist

iwilliams@waaytv.com

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Sunday 06/22/2014
Next Week Rain Chances Explained

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As we head into next week, we will be seeing an increase in the coverage of the showers and storms, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. This is thanks primarily to a zonal flow in the mid to upper parts of the atmosphere, and perturbations in this flow will allow for bouts of showers and storms at times over the next several days. 

The timing of each of these impulses will be difficult, but the bulk of the scattered storms will come during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. However, we now can't rule out a few stray showers or storms during the overnight or mornings hours as well. 

The stronger shortwave looks to move in during the middle of the week. The picture above shows the 500mb heights Thursday morning. Notice the shortwave trough over Missouri and Arkansas - this feature could locally enhance the coverage of showers and storms Thursday afternoon across the Valley. 

Again, while the forecast for next week is slightly complex in that there will be difficulty in timing out the best rain chances, the overall message is that we can expect higher rain chances each afternoon. There will still be some periods of sunshine, but make sure you have the rain gear handy each day. There could also be a few strong to marginally severe storms at times with gusty winds and hail the primary threats. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Meteorologist

iwilliams@waaytv.com

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Saturday 06/21/2014
Better Chances for Storms into Early Next Week, then Hotter?

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We are seeing isolated showers and storms across the Tennessee Valley late on this Saturday afternoon. While this activity is sparse in nature, where storms are in progress they are quite intense; we actually had a severe thunderstorm warning for DeKalb County earlier this afternoon. The more organized storms are located off to our northwest. 

It looks like we'll get some better upper-air support arriving in here by the first part of the week. Until then, we can expect more isolated activity for Sunday, but after that the coverage of scattered storms will likely increase. There will still be some periods of hazy sunshine, but the extra upper support will certainly support some additional showers and storms during peak heating of Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Some of the storms could become strong or briefly severe with gusty winds and hail the primary threats. 

Some of the longer range forecast data I'm seeing suggests the possibility of a heat bubble ridge developing by late week. I've adjusted temperatures upward Thursday and into next weekend in anticipation of this ridge being anchored in place, but it could actually wind up being warmer than currently forecast. On the other hand, we could also see temperatures not getting out of hand as some of the guidance suggests, so stay tuned for possible changes! One way or another, 90s will continue into the end of next week and into next weekend. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Meteorologist

iwilliams@waaytv.com

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Thursday 06/19/2014
Rain Chances Increase As We Head Into Our Weekend

The last week of spring has been scorching hot as temperatures have climbed anywhere between 3 to 8 degrees above average. You can see it see it here for Muscle Shoals.

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The average highs for the Tennessee Valley this time of year are usually into the upper 80's. Southerly winds, warm moist air from the Gulf, and ample amount of sunshine have been the three key ingredients to allowing us to be above average in temperatures.

Heading into the weekend, we'll finally see a change in the forecast, but you're looking to see a cool down, you won't find it here. A weak cold front will tap in from the North, bringing in a round of scattered showers in the forecast with possible gusty winds. Temperatures will settle for the mid to upper 80's due to the rain trying to help us cool off.

By Sunday we should clear out with the rain, and temperatures will rebound back into the lower 90's with muggy conditions in the forecast.

Meteorologist Liz Cosgrove

lcosgrove@waaytv.com

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