Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Sunday 04/20/2014
A Peek at the Weekend into Next Week's Weather for the TN Valley

After a very cold Winter and a relatively calm start to Spring, we might be in for a temporary pattern change moving into the weekend and next week. This would include warmer air and increasing moisture and consequently some increasing chances for showers and storms. We'll take it by day. 

FRIDAY: High pressure will have since moved off to our east, allowing a southerly to southeasterly flow to develop and continue a warm flux of air off the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, moisture will gradually be increasing thanks to these southerly winds. Our forecast models continue to indicate a frontal boundary trying to move into the area, but the primary upper support will be well north of the area. Furthermore, the system will be occluding, which suggests a subsequent weakening as the upper-level low and surface low become vertically stacked. What this will mean is certainly some cloud cover around our area, and as the front approaches Friday afternoon, a few isolated showers and storms will likely develop thanks to increasing instability values. This activity will be difficult to time and might persist into the evening as a zonal-like flow sets up in the mid-levels and we get subtle shortwaves moving through. 

SATURDAY: The aforementioned front will probably stall out somewhere across northern Alabama by Saturday. To the south, warm and moist air will remain; right now, I'm thinking this front will make it at least to around the US 278 corridor. Zonal flow will continue in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, so these isolated to scattered showers and storms will likely continue along and south of this boundary. Since we are 6 days out, it is very difficult to determine how far south this front will make it, so you might want to keep in mind a few storms could be around Saturday afternoon. 

SUNDAY: A strong system will be ejecting out of the Rockies and lee cyclogenssis will occur by Sunday. This surface low in the southwestern sections of the Plains will be moving northeastward over the next couple of days. There are some indications that a shortwave will eject ahead of the primary system Sunday afternoon, and if this happens, there could be an overall increase in the amount of showers and storms across the Valley Sunday evening. Forecast instability parameters could become favorable for some stronger storms, but for now the primary upper-level jet support does not appear favorable for any severe  storms to develop on a large spatial scale. 

MONDAY: This is the day we will have to keep our eyes on closely. The aforementioned powerhouse system will continue ejecting northeast and the attendant surface low will track from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Iowa area. This is based on the Euro model, which has performed extremely well this season. Should the Euro model pan out exactly as forecast today for Monday, we would be seeing the possibility at some strong or perhaps severe storms. It is much too early to speculate as to the exact timing or intensity of this "potential" threat and its associated severe weather modes as well. For now, just be aware that Monday could feature some stronger storms, and rest assured we are monitoring very closely. 

DisclaimerIn no way am I forecasting any severe storms this weekend or next week. However, I also am not discounting that possibility either; a lot of the forecasting process is recognizing patterns and what certain systems similar to the ones we are seeing in the forecast data have done in the past. Be sure and stay tuned to WAAY-31 for more information on your forecast through the upcoming work week. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

iwilliams@waaytv.com

Comments (0)
more »
Some Showers Return Late Monday and Tuesday across the TN Valley

Capture

It is certainly a gorgeous Easter Sunday across the Tennessee Valley with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. It feels fantastic as well thanks to low dew point temperatures. Once the sun sets this evening, the sky should remain mainly clear with temperatures dropping into the mid 50s by sunrise Monday. 

Capture2

A shortwave trough in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be approaching the area tomorrow, and in response we will see an increase in cloud cover by late morning. An isolated shower or two could develop after lunch, so I've included just a 10% chance of rain in the forecast for now. 

Capture3

As a frontal boundary moves closer to the region into Tuesday, a general increase in the coverage and potentially the intensity of the rain can be expected. There will be some instability to work with, so a few isolated thunderstorms are possible as this front passes through; however, no severe storms are expected given very weak wind shear. Some of the strongest activity will be capable of brief downpours. 

We dry out for Wednesday, but an unsettled weekend forecast is looking increasingly likely. I'll have much more details on your weekend forecast in a blog post a little later this evening. Otherwise, catch me on WAAY-TV for First News at 5 and 10 today! 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

iwilliams@waaytv.com

Comments (0)
more »
Saturday 04/19/2014
Sunny Easter Sunday; Rain Returns Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley

Capture

The afternoon visible satellite imagery depicts what our forecast model was showing for a couple of days - some lingering clouds over the eastern part of the Valley. Otherwise, a whole lot of sunshine is seen across the rest of the area and temperatures are responding nicely into the mid 70s, with the exception over the far eastern areas where the clouds have kept temperatures in the 60s. 

Capture2

Those pesky clouds will continue into the evening, but they should gradually dissipate after Midnight. With a persistent north and northeasterly wind, temperatures should fall back into the mid 50s and ultimately bottom around 50 as we start Easter morning. 

Capture3

A mild Easter Sunday is on the way! We should start the day off with a mainly sunny sky, but a few clouds could show up by the afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 70s. Fortunately for all of the outdoor events planned, there is no rain in the forecast so these can proceed as planned!

Capture4

A mid-level disturbance will be approaching the area as we start next week. Moisture will return in the mid-levels and interact with this approaching energy Monday afternoon and likely generate widespread cloud cover after some morning sunshine. I think moisture levels will initially be too low to support any rain making it to the ground, so I've lowered the rain chances for Monday. However, as a surface front moves in from the north and moisture pools along it, a better chance of rain and maybe a thunderstorm or two thanks to some instability developing in the afternoon. Because the CAPE (instability) profile is tall and skinny, parcel accelerations shouldn't be overly fast; this combined with weak wind shear will preclude any severe weather risks with this system, but don't be surprised if a rumble of thunder is heard Tuesday afternoon. 

Sunshine will return in full force for Wednesday as slightly cooler and drier air filters in from the north. A southerly flow quickly redevelops by Thursday, and our temperatures will respond into the low 80s along with some passing clouds. Model agreement remains a little on the low side with respect to the end of the week, so I've kept the forecast dry for now. However, I may have to introduce a small rain chance in for Friday, so stay tuned. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

iwilliams@waaytv.com

Comments (0)
more »
Friday 04/18/2014
Nice Easter Weather for the Tennessee Valley

Capture

The latest regional satellite/radar imagery shows a persistent rain east of Birmingham into Georgia and the Carolinas. We've just got cloud cover here in the valley, with a few sprinkles over far southeastern sections of the area. There has been no real movement in the rain line over the past several hours, so I'm not expecting much in the way of rainfall overnight tonight. If any light showers occur, they should occur south and east of Huntsville. 

Capture2

The system that's bringing all of the rain to our south and east is in no real hurry to get out of here; that is because it is actually developed into a cut-off low in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. What this basically means is that it has become detached from the primary storm track that is situated to the north. Still, I am expecting most places to see sunshine tomorrow afternoon, but the more likely locations for this will be west of I-65. Highs will range from the upper 60s east to the mid 70s west. 

Capture3

We should be under the influence of some mid-level ridging for your Easter Sunday, and that means lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. I've got the "great" on the forecast graphic; sunshine and mid to upper 70s will be the story. All of the outdoor festivities such as the Easter egg hunts will not be in weather jeopardy, so that's good news! 

Capture4

The sunny days will be short-lived as another disturbance organizes to the northwest in the form of another cool front. Thankfully, the airmass behind this front is no where near as cold as the last one that brought us some wintry precip. I'm expecting rain chances to climb by Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon as highs remain in the 70s. A few sprinkles could arrive as early as Monday night, but all of the rain should be out of the region by Wednesday as drier and slightly cooler builds in from the north. Some 80 degree temperatures are possible by Thursday as a southerly flow develops. This will help increase moisture gradually, and therefore be ready for some additional rain chances by next Saturday. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Some Showers Tonight; Gradually Becoming Sunny Saturday in the TN Valley

Capture

The rain has been relentless over south Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle throughout today, and thankfully we have not gotten the brunt of the heaviest rain this go-around. Radar estimates some spots over south Alabama got upwards of 5" with lighter totals with northward extent. 

Capture2

Regional VIPIR radar imagery shows the swath of heavy rain from southeast Alabama into basically the entire state of Georgia, north of a stationary front stretching east-northeast from a low pressure system over the far northeast Gulf. This system will be relatively slow to move, so I'm expecting widespread rain to continue over Georgia and far east Alabama for the next several hours. 

Capture3

For your Friday evening, our forecast model shows the edge of the light rain shower activity pressing into far southeastern sections of the TN valley - places like Gadsden, Centre, and Fort Payne could see a few showers during the overnight hours into Saturday morning. 

Capture4

Those pesky showers/clouds will linger into Saturday morning as well for basically the I-59 corridor and points eastward into Georgia. The rain should not be heavy in intensity, and the western half of the area actually should see some morning sunshine. Everyone in the valley should see some sunshine by Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid 70s west and upper 60s to near 70 in the east thanks to the lingering cloud cover. 

I'll have a full check of your 7-day forecast coming up on WAAY-31 First News at 4 and 5 this afternoon; plus, I'll have a fresh discussion concerning your Easter Forecast and behind coming up a little later this evening right here on the blog. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Thursday 04/17/2014
Early Weekend Rain Chances; Excellent Easter Weather

Capture

As we round another week here in the Tennessee Valley, we've got some more changes in the forecast, but thankfully I'm not talking severe weather or freezing conditions. I'm talking about an increase in cloud cover and some rain chances arriving throughout tomorrow as well. 

Capture2

We actually have two separate systems traversing the Southeast - 1) the approaching front to the west, and 2) the surface low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Clearly, the stronger of the two will be the southern system in the Gulf. By 7 AM in the morning, the surface low should be at a point a little south of Pensacola with widespread rain to the north and east of the circulation center. Notice the rain may spread as far north as I-20 at this point. 

Capture3

By 8 PM tomorrow night, the aforementioned front has basically washed out and lost its identity by this time. The surface low will be working into the Florida Peninsula/southern Georgia, plenty of moisture will exist on the north and northwest side of the system. There will be a sharp gradient in the cloud/rain coverage and the rain-free areas tomorrow night, and for right now I"m expecting that to be over the far southeastern sections of the viewing area. 

Capture4

Taking a little bit of a closer look with our in house higher resolution model, it suggests the bulk of the rain will be mostly outside the Tennessee Valley counties. However, I'm a little hesitant to believe this entirely; I think the best course of action is to use a blend of the two forecast models I've shown here. The bottom line is the best chance at a few passing showers will be over the southeastern sections of the area, including places like Gadsden, Fort Payne, Guntersville, and Scottsboro. While a shower cannot be ruled out across the entire TN Valley, these areas stand the best chance of rain tomorrow night into early Saturday morning. 

Capture5

That surface low pressure system will slowly move eastward on Saturday, but lingering clouds and rain will be likely especially over north Georgia. Some of this activity could linger over far eastern and northeastern Alabama through midday, but the majority of the valley should see a clearing sky with temperatures rising into the low and mid 70s by the afternoon. In places where the clouds linger the longest, temperatures will hold in the mid 60s. 

Capture6

Everyone wants to know about the Easter forecast, and the good news is that there is lots of sunshine on the way! Temperatures will top out in the mid to potentially upper 70s with a good supply of sunshine. We will be under the influence of mid-level ridging which suggests sinking air, and therefore I'm not expecting any rain chances Sunday. Our next rain chance will return late Monday into Tuesday, but even then the rain chance is only at 20%. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Pleasant Thursday Evening Ahead for the TN Valley

CaptureThe weather is feeling fantastic across the Valley this afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s area-wide with lots of sunshine. There's been a few high clouds throughout the day, but these are way up in the atmosphere above 25,000 feet and pose no threat for rain. 

Capture2

Heading throughout the evening, temperatures will hover in the mid 60s by 6 PM with a good supply of sunshine continuing. Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 50s by the late evening with a bit more cloud cover likely to spread into the area during the overnight hours. A stray shower is possible towards the Shoals, but the confidence in this is not high enough to warrant any rain chances. 

Capture3

A dynamic, complex storm system will quickly move through the Southeastern states/Gulf of Mexico tomorrow that will spin up a surface low pressure system over the Florida Panhandle. We will be on the northern periphery of this system, but the cloud cover will be around tomorrow and rain is possible by tomorrow night. Our forecast model shows some rain for southeastern sections of the TN Valley by 8-10 PM tomorrow night. The rain shouldn't be overly heavy, but be aware of some passing showers in these areas. The rain could last into Saturday morning as well before tapering off into the afternoon. 

I will have more information on the rest of your weekend forecast as well as some additional rain chances next week coming up in another blog post a little later this evening. Be sure to join me on WAAY-TV for First News at 5 this afternoon and at 10 this evening for all your forecast details. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »
Wednesday 04/16/2014
This Could Our Last Freeze Until The Fall

FROM CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SPENCER DENTON

Updated WEDNESDAY 5:00PM

LEAVING THE FREEZING WEATHER BEHIND! Lows were on target this morning ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. No records were broken in Huntsville or Muscle Shoals. Everyone stays above freezing tonight with lows generally in the mid to upper 30’s. This may have been our last freeze until next fall, but it is still possible until early May. I may go ahead and plant some stuff soon.

LATE WEEK WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EASTER: Temperatures will gradually warm up by the end of the week. Highs will reach the 60s to near 70 tomorrow and Friday with lows back in the 40s and 50s. A weak front may produce a few showers Friday, but widespread rain is not likely.

As of now, Easter weekend is looking mainly dry. The good news…highs will be in the low to mid 70’s and maybe even upper 70’s if we see enough sunshine. Great weather for all those outdoor activities and Easter egg hunts. Expect the mild pattern to continue into next week with another chance of rain by Tuesday.

You can check the specific numbers on the 7 day forecast by clicking here http://www.waaytv.com/weather/7_day/

 

FOLLOW MY WEATHER UPDATES ON THESE SOCIAL MEDIA SITES

FACEBOOK

TWITTER

GOOGLE+

Comments (0)
more »
Tuesday 04/15/2014
Freeze Overnight - Cover Up Tender Plants!

FROM CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SPENCER DENTON

Updated TUESDAY 5:00PM

Forecast lows across the TN Valley by Wednesday morning

Overnight Lows

Freeze warnings in place across much of the southeast overnight

Freeze Warnings Southeast

FREEZE/FROST OVERNIGHT – PROTECT TENDER PLANTS! After seeing some light flurries and snow this morning in portions of the TN Valley, we turn our attention to a brief cold blast by Wednesday morning.  The wind will die down by morning with a clear sky. This will help lows will drop to around 30º on average, but some colder valley’s may see the mid to upper 20’s. Plan to cover up any tender plants and vegetation. Farmer will certainly be keeping an eye on how long it’s below freezing since a hard freeze could damage crops.

LATE WEEK WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EASTER: Temperatures will gradually warm up by the end of the week. Highs will reach the 60s to near 70 by Thursday and Friday with lows back in the 40s and 50s. A weak front may produce a few showers or storms Friday, but widespread rain is not likely.

As of now, Easter weekend is looking mainly dry but the models have been back and forth on possible rain chances. We will adjust the forecast if necessary, so check back later this week, especially if you have outdoor easter egg hunts planned. The good news is highs will be in the low to mid 70’s and maybe even upper 70’s if we see enough sunshine. Expect the mild pattern to continue into next week.

You can check the specific numbers on the 7 day forecast by clicking here http://www.waaytv.com/weather/7_day/

YOU CAN FOLLOW ME ON THESE SOCIAL MEDIA SITES

FACEBOOK

TWITTER

GOOGLE+

INSTAGRAM

Comments (0)
more »
Sunday 04/13/2014
Tennessee Valley Weather Update - 8:30 PM

Capture

The SPC has issued a slight risk for some severe storms tomorrow in the areas highlighted in the yellow. Notice only a small portion of the Tennessee Valley is included at this time, and I don't expect this to change too much heading into tomorrow. 

Capture2

Regional radar imagery shows an active weather evening shaping up for areas to the west. A swath of rain and thunderstorms exists from central Louisiana into eastern Arkansas/Missouri; these are currently not severe and I'm not expecting this activity to become severe overnight tonight. However, a potent line of thunderstorms just ahead of an advancing cold front is severe with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings.

The convective evolution this evening remains a bit murky. Some of the latest high-resolution guidance available shows that potent line of thunderstorms accelerating east-southeast overnight and weakening. This model also shows the cluster of storms in Louisiana strengthening toward daybreak over central Mississippi as it moves eastward slowly. 

Capture3

While I'm not expecting any severe threat to materialize here overnight, no doubt we will see some rain and thunderstorms. Our latest in-house computer model shows some heavier rains spreading into the Shoals and approaching Huntsville by 6 AM tomorrow - just in time for the morning commute. Some of the rain could be heavy at times, and some gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, but again I'm not expecting any storms to reach severe limits. 

Capture4

The evolution of tomorrow's events also is a bit uncertain. It is entirely possible that the morning storms will linger to the south of the valley and act to "cut off" our moisture supply. Should this happen, I would only expect some scattered showers or perhaps a storm in the early evening hours. If some sun is able to peek through the clouds tomorrow afternoon, then we might see a bit more widespread nature to the showers and storms. Should the sun break out some, our instability, or how unstable the atmosphere is, would increase. As this happens, any storm that moves into this area would have the potential to become strong. As the ascent, or rising motion, approaches from the west as the upper-trough moves in, these storms could potentially become marginally severe with gusty winds the primary threat. This would be from around 4 PM until 10 PM. 

THE BOTTOM LINE: The forecast for tomorrow afternoon and evening remains uncertain. It will be a day that you will want to keep up with the latest weather information, but it is entirely possible, and frankly quite likely, we escape this event with no severe weather issues. However, we have to account for the possibility that a few severe storms could develop tomorrow afternoon and evening, so stay tuned. 

Capture5

No, this is not a mistake in our computer model - a freeze is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a shot of fairly cold air moves in from the north. This is after Tuesday's highs only manage the low 50s! Temperatures should bottom out in the 29 to 33 range Tuesday evening, and some spots could end up being at or below freezing for several hours. This could be a potentially damaging freeze, so planters/farmers should make precautions now to protect sensitive vegetation. The good news is that this cold shot of air will not last long; we will warm back into the 60s for the middle of the week. 70s return for next weekend. 

Isaac Williams

WAAY-TV Weather

Comments (0)
more »

Man charged with two break-ins at Madison business

MADISON, Ala. (WAAY) - Police have arrested a man for breaking into the same store twice in a four-month span.

Huntsville police searching for missing teenager

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WAAY) - Police are asking for the public's help in locating a teenager who hasn't been seen since Sunday.

Diesel spill closes Limestone County road for most of the day

LIMESTONE COUNTY, Ala. (WAAY)-A diesel spill closed Bethel Road for most of Thursday as crews cleaned the roadway.