Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Thursday 10/30/2014
Arctic Air Is On The Way!

FRIDAY: This will be the beginning of our cold weather. We will start off with mostly sunny skies but by midday when the front moves through we will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Once the front passes you will feel that increased wind speed. Winds will be sustained between 10-20 mph but gusting to 30 mph at times. The gusty winds will last throughout the evening. They will become weaker Friday night but they will be breezy again Saturday mainly areas east of I-65.

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SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNINGS: These mornings will be the coldest we have had since last March/April. We will see wide-spread frost with pockets of freezing temperatures Saturday morning and more locations hitting the freezing mark or even colder Sunday morning.

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Wednesday 10/29/2014
Coldest Air In Months To Hit The Valley

FRIDAY: This is when we will see our next cold front. This is the strongest one we have seen this season in terms of the cold air behind it. The change in temperatures won't be the first thing you notice but it will be the wind. Winds will be breezy with sustained wind speeds 10-20 mph and gusting to 25 mph at times. This will make trick-or-treating on the cold side. Along with Friday night football. So be sure to bundle up if your doing either on Friday evening.

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SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNINGS: Get ready for some cold air Tennessee Valley! We will see temperatures between 28-34° both days. I do think that we will see more locations have a freeze Sunday morning than Saturday morning. Expect at least wide-spread frosts both days.

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This is the last time we hit 32°:

Huntsville: 3/26, Decatur 4/16, Muscle Shoals 3/26

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Tuesday 10/28/2014
Rain Tonight And A Freezing Weekend

TONIGHT: A cold front will move through and bring in some rain and a few storms. Generally areas will receive between .15" and .50". That will just depend if you get a storm overhead or not. The front will be through by early tomorrow morning. There may be a few showers behind the front but most of Wednesday should be dry.

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WEEKEND: Another front will move through the Valley Friday. The only thing this will do is bring in some afternoon cloud cover and colder air. This batch of cold air will last all weekend. Enough to make the highs for Saturday in the mid 50s. We should break back into the 60s on Sunday but not by much.

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FROST/FREEZE: Saturday and Sunday morning will be a cold one. There will most likely be a wide-spread frost Saturday morning and again Sunday morning with a few more areas receiving a freeze for the first time this season. The low for Sunday morning will be especially interesting because it will also be Daylight Saving time. Conditions will be ideal for becoming the coldest that conditions will allow for. Either way I would start prepping your plants for a freeze this weekend.

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Monday 10/27/2014
Shot At Rain Then Cold Temperatures

NEXT COLD FRONT: Our next front will arrive Tuesday evening/night and last through Wednesday afternoon for our western counties. This front will bring in cooler air and a decent chance at some showers and storms.

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LONG TERM: High pressure moves back into the Valley and this will keep us sunny and dry through early next week. This means Friday night football looks ideal along with any college game Saturday. Halloween will be a little cool in the evening for Trick-or-Treating but nothing another layer of shirts won't fix.

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FIRST FREEZE?: We do have the potential for our first freeze of the season. This would occur Sunday morning. The air mass that moves in Saturday will be a cold and very dry one. Dew points will drop to around 30 degrees Saturday night. The atmosphere will be very dry along with calm winds and clear skies. If not a wide-spread freeze certainly valleys would be most susceptible. We will continue to monitor this.   12345

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Wednesday 10/22/2014
Patchy Frost Possible Tonight

FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT: We've been in the 40s the last few nights for overnight lows. The only thing we have seen out of that is some valley fog develop. Thursday morning we may be able to see some frost. We will be under a Frost Advisory from 4 a.m. until 9 a.m. Thursday. Unprotected outdoor plants could be killed if left unprotected.

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WARMING TREND: The next few days you will see a vast difference during the afternoons. We will see a 10 degree swing in high temperatures between Thursday and Saturday. Some spots this weekend will most likely hit 80.

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Tuesday 10/21/2014
Storm Prediction Center Changes

CURRENT TREND: A dominating area of high pressure has been around and will continue to be around through the beginning of next week. The only thing that will change will be our temperatures as they will be warmer starting this weekend. There is still no real rain chances in sight. The only thing that may materialize will be some showers Tuesday night into Wednesday of next week.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER CHANGES: Starting Wednesday October 22 there will be some changes to the way the Storm Prediction Center issues their convective outlooks. What used to be four categories will now be five. Here is a look at the current and proposed categories.

Current:

1. See Text

2. Slight (SLGT)

3. Moderate (MDT)

4. High (HIGH)

Proposed:

1. Marginal (MRGL) - replaces the current SEE TEXT and now is described with Categorical line on the SPC Outlook.

2. Slight (SLGT)

3. Enhanced (ENH) - will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk

4. Moderate (MDT)

5. High (HIGH)

This is how it would have looked for the April 27, 2011 Day 1 Outlook:

Current:

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Proposed:

spc2SPCchanges

On that day nothing would have changed for our viewing area. We still would have had a moderate and high risk.

But why is SPC changing what has been around for 35 years? Change for the sake of change? The answer is no. They are changing the way they are issuing these outlooks to give the public a better idea of what to expect for severe weather probabilities. They are not doing an entire overhaul of the system but they are adjusting one of the outlooks and adding another.

New Day 1 Outlook Probability:

day1prob2cat_sm

The bigger question has been, "Is this change even worth it?". I think it's too early to tell but I will applaud the SPC for trying to improve the current system. The SPC has been researching information and ideas from a multitude of places for a while to get where they are now.

For more information about this change you can go to the link here.

SOCIAL MEDIA:

Twitter: @ChrisWAAY31

Facebook: ChrisWAAY31 

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Monday 10/20/2014
The Redundant Forecast

TONIGHT: A weak cold front will pass but the cloud cover that has moved in this afternoon will last tonight. If areas become fairly clear patchy fog will be possible by morning.

GENERAL TREND: There will be an abundant amount of high pressure this week. Not only at the surface but in the atmosphere aloft. The only minor disturbance that comes through will be Wednesday and Thursday. Since there won't be much moisture we will only see a few added clouds during those afternoons. Temperatures will sway on the "average" side this week. The average high for Huntsville for the next five days will be 73/72 degrees.  Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

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Thursday 10/16/2014
Sunshine And More Sunshine!

THIS EVENING: The cloud cover is just about out of here and we are in store for a pleasant evening. Temperatures will cool rapidly once the sun sets so if you have any outdoor plans this evening to just grab a sweatshirt or light jacket just in case. SCREENCAP

CRUISE CONTROL FORECAST: It's been a while but we will be sunny, cool and comfortable the next several days. The main reason will be a large ridge in the Jet Stream starting this weekend and should last through the end of next week. That will apply a downward force in the atmosphere which makes it tough for clouds, rain or really much to form.

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Wednesday 10/15/2014
Clouds For One More Day Then Sunshine!

UPPER LEVEL LOW: We just have another 24-30 hours left to deal with this upper level low. This will cause about half of the Valley to see mostly sunny skies while the other half stays mostly cloudy. Huntsville will be in the middle so we will start off Thursday with mostly cloudy/overcast and by the mid to late afternoon partly sunny.

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WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday will be cooler than normal. A reinforcing cold front will pass through Saturday. This will be our 850mb temps from 11/13 degrees Celsius to 3/4 degrees Celsius in the afternoon. So the highs on Saturday will be in the low 70s. Sunday will stay cool and we probably won't hit 70. 

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LONG TERM: This will be a relaxing week for many as high pressure at the surface moves in along with riding aloft. This will keep the sunshine around the better half of a week with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Keep those blankets close!

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SOCIAL MEDIA:

Twitter: @ChrisWAAY31

Facebook: ChrisWAAY31

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Tuesday 10/14/2014
From Cloudy To Beautiful

UPPER LEVEL LOW: This will be the main cause of our weather the next two days. It will keep the cloud cover almost locked into the Tennessee Valley and give us a small chance for a few showers. The best chances for showers will be for southern Tennessee and extreme northern Alabama.

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NICE STREAK OF WEATHER: Once the upper level low leaves we will have a reinforcing cold front push through. This will move out any and all cloud cover for a few days and keep our high and low temperatures around average.

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Halloween candy buyback helps troop overseas

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WAAY) - Your trick-or-treating can help our troops. 

Huntsville Police offer safe Halloween tips and treats

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WAAY) Huntsville Police are increasing neighborhood patrols for families celebrating Halloween. Chief Lewis Morris says "Huntsville has been very fortunate over the years not to have any incidents involving motorists or children and our officers will be monitoring traffic and children to keep that safe record."

Gas ready to drop below $3 for 1st time in 4 years

NEW YORK (AP) — The average price of gasoline in the U.S. hit $3 a gallon Friday, and should soon drop below the benchmark for the first time since December 2010.