GREAT START TO THE WORK WEEK: After heavy rains Saturday morning, the rest of the weekend is looking good. We'll clear out through the overnight hours and have a lot more sunshine for Sunday. Expect warm temps in the 70's with only a few passing clouds. The weather will stay warm and dry as we start the work week. By Monday, temps drop to the low 70's and upper 60's, still seeing lots of sunshine. Clouds will start to thicken up Tuesday afternoon.
SHOWERS COULD RETURN MID WEEK: Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, we could see a few passing showers, and isolated thunderstorms as the next system makes it's way across the valley. Temperatures will be a bit cooler during the stretch, dropping off into the upper 60's. However, it should clear out by Wednesday evening, and things will once again look dry as we close out the work week and head into the weekend.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Most of the Tennessee Valley has been dropped from the slight risk area by the Storm Prediction Center. We were concerned about the chances of severe weather due to a lack lift to get thunderstorms started. The greatest risk will still be point to the south and east, Cullman, Dekalb, Marshall and parts of Jackson county have the greatest risk now.
RADAR: Currently we aren't seeing any storms popping up that would pose a threat to us, we'll continue to watch through the afternoon and early evening.
Ducommon Miltec is a company that normally specializes in Missile defense, however, they are also now diving into weather research of the detection of tornadoes by the sounds they produce.
According to Hank Rinehart, the Director of sensors at Ducommon Miltec "We determined we were able to hear the tornadoes at frequencies below human hearing, well below human hearing, and we could triangulate that and track the tornadoes throughout their life cycle."
That low frequency sound is called infrasound. During the April 2011 outbreak, Ducommon Miltec had infrasound sensors across north Alabama. When they looked at the data after the outbreak, they noticed anomalies that coincided with when tornadoes were moving through the area.
The blue line represents where the tornado was triangulated using infra sound, and the red and pink lines represent where the UAH's radar was showing the tornadoes.
Rinehart says "The Hackleburg tornado, we were able to track that and initiate a detection over 100 kilometers away, and tracked it on it's path for over 100 to 120 kilometers."
They were also able to detect the Cullman tornado roughly 50-60km away.
Rinehart says they also noticed variations in the sounds they produce as the storms weakened during their tracks.
Ducommon Miltec hopes to collaborate with UAH and SWIRLL (Severe Weather Institute and Radar & Lightning Laboratory) and deploy sensors during the fall severe weather season, and again in the spring.
Both SWIRLL and Ducommon Miltec had expressed interest in having infrasound research involved in the upcoming 'Vortex Southeast' project slated for deployment in Spring 2016, however, nothing is set in stone as of yet.
The benefits of this research could be huge by providing a means of direct detection of tornadoes. This could help reduce the amount of false alarm warning, while increasing warning times.
THRU MIDDAY: Now that the rain is done we will see how the atmosphere recovers. The warmer we get today the more unstable we will become. It will feel very warm and muggy today with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. We will be very closely monitoring how the rest of this morning progresses along with how smaller scale processes are developing. That will give us a much better idea of how this afternoon and evening will play out.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: As expected the Shoals was taken out of the slight risk for severe weather. The best chances for severe weather will be north of the Valley in Kentucky and Tennessee but we could still see some isolated strong to severe storms. The threats would be large hail (1-2") along with winds going up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado is possible but other factors have to come into play before that happens.
We do think the best chances for those isolated severe storms would be inside of the white circle on the Severe Outlook.
PANOPLY: Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday but odds are they won't impact the event. Sunday looks to be the best day!
Be sure to follow us on social media!
OTHER USEFUL LINKS!
FRIDAY: As higher pressure moves towards the eastern seaboard, we'l see an increase in cloud cover and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms by Friday evening. A few thunderstorms could produce small hail and gusty winds for the commute heading back home from work. Temperatures will reach into the mid 70's.
SATURDAY: As early as Saturday morning, our first batch of thunderstorms from a system building into eastern Texas this morning will move through the Tennessee Valley. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main concern as we go from midnight until 8 A.M. Saturday morning. Winds may by gusty, so be careful of down power lines and tree limbs as we go throughout Saturday morning.
Saturday Afternoon: If we see a few peaks of sunshine, things could turn severe on Saturday afternoon. That sunshine will help trigger a good amount of instability, and along with some fast, turning winds in the lower layers of the atmosphere, there is a chance of picking up on an isolated tornado. This is why the Storm Prediction Center has put Huntsville and our Southern Tennessee Counties under an Enhanced Risk for Saturday afternoon. Now once again, we need that sunshine to break the clouds Saturday afternoon in order to see severe weather develop across the Valley. It's not a certain situation, so you NEED to stay weather aware with The WAAY 31 Storm Force Weather Team all day Saturday so we can keep you up to date, especially if you're heading out towards Panoply.
SUNDAY: Things will quiet down come Sunday as higher pressure will build in from the North, giving us plenty of sunshine and calm conditions. Sunday will be your best day to plan any thing outside or head to Panoply.
FRIDAY: It's looking like a nice day! Highs in the low 70s with plenty of sunshine. A few spotty showers may move into the Valley during the evening.
PANOPLY: Friday and Sunday is looking the best to be at the event. With the scattered nature of the showers and storms for Saturday. Getting rain or a storm to go right over the event will be tough to do. Bring an umbrella with you just in case and you will be fine!
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: A warm front will be moving through the Valley. The atmosphere should be stable enough to only hear a few rumbles of thunder. The biggest threat will be locally heavy rainfall. With how much rain we have recently seen anything added will just make it easier for flash flooding.
SATURDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON: With some of the cloud cover breaking conditions will warm up fast. Highs are expected to be around 80 in most locations. During this time we will be mostly rain free. A few straggler showers may be around at this point.
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: A weak cold front will move closer to the Valley at this point. But before it crosses we could see some stronger storms develop to our west or right over the Valley. The main threats will be damaging wind and large hail. The tornado threat will be fairly low but not ruled out completely. We are under a slight risk for severe weather for the whole viewing area during this time.
THURSDAY: A weak wave of energy will skim the Valley today giving us mostly cloudy skies and cool conditions today as temperatures will only reach into the mid 60's. Winds will move in from the Northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Another disturbance will move in from the West, giving us a few stray showers to deal with Friday afternoon with a couple rumbles of thunder. Highs will reach into the lower 70's.
By Friday night into Saturday evening, two batches of thunderstorms look to move in to start off our weekend. One batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through during late Friday night into early Saturday morning, where possible severe thunderstorms could develop. During Saturday afternoon we'll see a few peaks of sunshine to trigger unstable conditions to spark another line of thunderstorms Saturday evening. This is where a chance of a spin-up could occur. Please if you're heading to Panoply, stay weather aware!
SUNDAY: Sunday would be a better day to head to Panoply as higher pressure will build in, giving us plenty of sunshine and much calmer weather to end the weekend. Temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 70's.
THIS EVENING: Isolated showers and storms are possible this evening as a cold front moves through the Valley.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Not much rain is expected as high pressure wedges in for about 48 hours.
SATURDAY: Things will start off very soggy as heavy rain and thunder will be likely. The afternoon there won't be as much rain but scattered showers will be possible.
PANOPLY: Friday and Sunday are looking the best but even Saturday afternoon won't be bad. Just keep an umbrella handy and you should be just fine.
WEDNESDAY: We'll start the day off on a pleasant note with plenty of sunshine, but come this afternoon, a cold front will push through the Valley. Winds will pick up this afternoon moving at 10 to 20 mph, and isolated showers will develop. Not everyone will see the rain and most showers will be light in nature. Showers will continue to develop for the overnight hours. Highs will be right on average, into the mid 70's with lows dipping into the mid to lower 50's.
THURSDAY: A disturbance building in from the West will keep skies cloudy for Thursday. Temperatures will only reach into the mid 60's thanks to cooler air flowing in from the North.
FRIDAY: Higher pressure building over the Ohio River Valley will stall out our disturbance to the West to help break up the clouds throughout the day. Temperatures will rebound back into the lower 70's. By nighttime, this system from the West will finally move in to give us isolated showers with a couple of rumbles to deal with.
UNSETTLED WEEKEND: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout the day Saturday. At this point in time, nothing looks severe, but Panoply looks to be soggy, so grab an umbrella if you plan to attend Saturday. Temperatures will stay into the lower 70's. By Sunday morning, we'll clear out of the rain, leading to mostly sunny skies. It's best to make plans for outdoor activities Sunday if possible.
SUMMARY: There is a weak front to our north and that will slide through the Valley Wednesday afternoon. Not much rain is expected. Our next solid chance of rain will be early Saturday morning.
TONIGHT: Partly Cloudy with lows around 50.
TOMORROW: Mostly sunny to partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
SATURDAY MORNING: A warm front will move into the Valley. This will cause some locally heavy downpours and some thunder. The atmosphere is fairly capped. Which means storms would have a very tough time trying to develop.