Tennessee Valley Weather Blog

Monday 09/29/2014
Warm Days Ahead Before A Strong Cold Front Passes

NEXT FEW DAYS: We will be very warm for this time of the year. Daily highs Tuesday through Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s. Our normal high is 80°.

STRONG COLD FRONT: Models have been doing a good job at moving a cold front through Thursday night through Friday morning. Conditions are decent to have strong to severe storms as this line passes. There is okay shear but the low level jet is strong for only parts of the viewing area. Best chances for the severe weather look to be in central Alabama.

SCREENCAP

**This will be a system to watch out for and to see how it develops over the next couple of days. So far the storm prediction center has not put out a severe weather outlook for Thursday night.**

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Friday 09/26/2014
One More Dry Day Then Rain

THIS EVENING: Even with the cloud cover the rest of this evening will be great for football. Temperatures at kick-off will be in the upper 70s.

SATURDAY: This will be our last dry day even though it will look like it could shower at any moment during the afternoon. By the evening we will be fairly overcast.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: This is when the rain will finally move in. As the low moves away from the Gulf it will push the showers in generally from the SW to NE. The heaviest rain should occur during the evening and overnight into Monday morning. I think only some showers will linger on Monday as the system moves towards the Carolinas. 

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**The models haven't been doing the greatest keeping consistency with rain amounts or location. The general trend has been to push the low more SE. Acknowledging that fact I have changed the location of the expected rain amounts. If the SE shift of the low becomes more pronounced some of NW counties may be lucky to see any rain at all.**

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Thursday 09/25/2014
Last Nice Days Before The Rain Arrives

FRIDAY & SATURDAY The nice weather continues but high pressure will begin to depart Saturday. Cloud cover will increase a little more Saturday evening.

Sunday & Monday:  The forecast hasn't changed dramatically but there is a slight change to the placement of the low. It looks like the low will now be positioned right over the state lines of east central Mississippi and west central Alabama. The change in position will also change where the most rain will potentially fall. It looks like the most amount of rain will fall west of highway 65 for both TN and AL.

SCREENCAP SCREENCAP2

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Wednesday 09/24/2014
Nice Weather & A Rain Maker

TONIGHT: Calm and comfortable will be the general idea for the forecast tonight: Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

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THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: The pattern will be just like the last few days except a degree or two warmer each day. Friday night and Saturday football games will have excellent weather conditions.

SUNDAY EVENING & MONDAY: Models are coming back into agreement with the solution for Sunday evening and Monday. It still looks like an area of low pressure will move out of the Gulf. The low will also come ashore with vast amounts of available water. As the low pushes just NW of the Tennessee Valley it will be producing rain and storms. Those storms will be able to pack a rain punch. The potential for flash flooding will be increased for areas west of 65. The larger rainfall amounts will occur in W/NW Alabama, SW Tennessee and NE Mississippi. It looks very possible to see some totals 2.5-3.5".

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Monday 09/22/2014
Beautiful Weather For Now But A Spoiler In The Future?

TONIGHT: This is your classic set up for a chilly night. We'll have clear skies, light to calm winds and plenty of cool air already in place. We could even see some lows into the upper 40s.

PATTERN THIS WEEK: High pressure reigns supreme. Expect sunny skies and temperatures to remain below normal for highs and lows.

RAIN MAKER NEXT WEEK?: Models are hinting at some very moist air moving into the Tennessee Valley. It looks like there could be an area of pressure to move out of the Gulf and almost moving right over the Tennessee Valley.

model2 model1 model3

Some things to note are the PW amounts which easily go over 2". Any rain or storms that form will be proficient rain produces. The spaghetti plots(# of different model outputs ) have a decent consensus of the amounts of rain. The Euro model is pretty consistent with the GFS with the placement of the low in Mississippi/Tennessee.

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Friday 09/19/2014
Some Rain Sunday Then Cool & Dry

THIS EVENING: Friday night football games should all be good unless your unlucky enough to get one of the isolated showers or storms overhead.

SUNDAY: A cold front will arrive late in the afternoon and some showers along with a few storms will be possible.

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MONDAY: After the front it will be cooler and much drier. Dew points by Monday afternoon will have dropped into the low 50s.

SCREENCAP

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Thursday 09/18/2014
Rain Chances Before A Cold Front

THIS EVENING: Shower and storms are possible mainly areas west of 65. They shouldn't last past 10 p.m.

FRIDAY: High pressure will be stacked to our NE but this will also provide easterly flow. This won't just be at the surface but also up to about 1,600 meters high. Enough moisture may be pushed in that we could see some isolated showers in NE/E Alabama.

SCREENCAP

SUNDAY: A cold front will arrive late in the afternoon and some showers along with a few storms will be possible.

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MONDAY: After the front it will be cooler and much drier. Dew points by Monday afternoon will have dropped into the low 50s.

SCREENCAP3

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Wednesday 09/17/2014
Dying Storms But Looking Good This Weekend

TONIGHT: There is a dying mesoscale convective system (MCS) in Missouri and Arkansas.  We saw some of the cloud cover created by those storms here in the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. What we could also see tonight is some of the remnant moisture. This is one of our Hi-Res models and it's showing some stray showers west of 65 by early tomorrow morning. Confidence is low that this will occur but wouldn't be surprised if we get a few sprinkles.

model1

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The weather still looks great! Highs will be in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s. Friday night football and any games on Saturday look ideal.

SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY: A weak cold front will move through and this may cause a few isolated showers.

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Monday 09/15/2014
Cold Front Then Nice Weather

TUESDAY: A weak cold front will pass through the Tennessee Valley and we could see some isolated showers and storms. The problem will be the lack of sufficient moisture. The PW or Precipitable Water won't be going over 1.0 which will make it a little tougher for showers and storms to form.

SCREENCAP

LONG TERM: An upper level ridge will move in slowly this week. That means we will see plenty of sinking motion from the mid and upper levels. There will be a decent subsidence inversion so even clouds will be tough to form let along showers and storms. The ridge begins to move away and break down as we go through the weekend.

SCREENCAP2

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Thursday 09/11/2014
Stormy Forecast But A Nice Weekend

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: The storm chances will be small but we could see some widely scattered showers and storms. The cold front moves closer to the Tennessee Valley tonight but more towards dawn. As the front approaches we could see widely scattered showers.

FRIDAY: The front has already moved through but we could see storm chances through mid/late-afternoon. I still think that most of the Friday night football games will be okay but just in case take an umbrella.

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THIS WEEKEND: There are no major changes to the forecast except a slight increase in high temperatures and overnight lows. Models are in decent agreement that there will be slightly higher dew points and warmer air in place for Saturday and Sunday.

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STAYING COOL: Temperatures will be staying below normal through next Tuesday.

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Teen charged as adult in Decatur shooting

DECATUR, Ala. (WAAY) - Police arrested a Harvest teenager Monday and charged him with a shooting in a Decatur recreation center parking lot.

Girls found safe after leaving school, man facing charges

LAUDERDALE COUNTY, Ala. (WAAY) - Rogersville police said a man will face charges for taking two girls, ages 14 and 12, to his house Tuesday morning instead of them going to school.

Local cities get more than $320,000 for education, employment

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WAAY) - The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced Monday that $1.2 million dollars will go to help public housing and Housing Choice Voucher residents in Alabama. More than $320,000 will go to our local area.