Now that we are closer to Saturday, the data coming in is starting to provide the detail needed to fine tune the forecast.
Let's start with the timing...early Saturday morning, a line of showers and storms will enter the Shoals. The timing of this will be between 6 and 7 AM. This line progresses eastward, reaching the Huntsville metro between 8 and 9 AM. It should weaken a bit on its eastward progression and it will also slow down slightly. It reaches Jackson County by midday, but doesn't make it to Marshall and DeKalb Counties until early afternoon.
This first round of rain and storms will play a large role in the kind of severe threat in place through the remainder of the day. If you follow severe weather in any capacity, you are probably aware sunshine = energy for storms and clouds/rain = less energy and usually weaker storms. If we hang on to considerable cloud cover and lingering showers behind Round One, storms during the afternoon (Round Two) won't pack as much of a punch. It's also important to note that the likelihood for severe weather with Round One is low due in part to its arrival time early in the morning.
The materialization of Round Two hinges on several ingredients and as detailed above, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast. Cloud cover or sun? Rainy or dry? Too stable? These are all the factors we are trying to pick apart in the coming days. The timing also remains a bit hairy. There's not much agreement within the data in regard to arrival and end times, but that's starting to change little by little.
Something that's remained relatively constant is the main threat with any severe storms that develops: wind. Wind gusts near 60 mph will be possible with severe storms that form. We can't completely rule out damaging, quarter size hail and isolated, brief tornadoes, either.
Regardless of wind, etc., this is going to be a rainmaker across the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall projections are between two and four inches at this point, we we will also be monitoring the flooding risk Saturday and Sunday.
This remains a very fluid, developing forecast, so check in regularly with the WAAY 31 Severe Storm Tracking Team for the latest updates.