All week long, we've been closely tracking the weekend forecast, trying to iron out the details. Usually, 24 hours out, the picture becomes clearer. While that's happening in some capacity, there is still plenty of variables up in the air tomorrow.
Our focus this morning has been to prepare you for the "worst case" scenario, in addition to the earliest arrival of the storms. Let's talk about what that is exactly...
- Storms don't begin until the afternoon, higher severe risk
- We see minimal shower or storm activity in the morning, leaving more available energy/fuel for afternoon storms. This would
create a better environment for storms to grow stronger later in the day.
- Showers and storms arrive before sunrise, potentially lower afternoon severe risk
- Instead of the worst case scenario, the storms would arrive early in the morning before sunrise through the Shoals. They would sweep
eastward through the mid to late morning, breaking apart before crossing I-65. This would "use up" a large portion
of the available energy in the atmosphere, so that round of afternoon storms would likely be weaker. If the sun breaks out after the
showers and storms, this "weaker" scenario becomes less likely.
- Heavy rain, flash flooding, then river flooding. Two to four inches of rain will fall Saturday through Saturday night
- Damaging wind with gusts over 60 mph will be possible with severe storms
- Isolated tornadoes will be possible as well
As the latest data comes in, we will continue to modify this forecast to provide a more specific forecast for tomorrow.